Qatar FM Calls for Israeli Withdrawal from Lebanon
The Qatari foreign minister reaffirms support for Beirut while urging Israel to withdraw its forces from Lebanese territory.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 14:08 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 13:45 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 13:24 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 12:56 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 12:19 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 11:58 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 11:02 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 10:55 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 10:14 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 09:54 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 09:12 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 08:59 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 08:13 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 07:53 UTC | 4% |
| 16 Oct, 07:24 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 06:29 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 05:48 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 05:21 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 03:36 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 03:29 UTC | 4% |
| 16 Oct, 02:55 UTC | 4% |
| 16 Oct, 01:49 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 01:15 UTC | 4% |
| 16 Oct, 00:48 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 00:09 UTC | 5% |
| 15 Oct, 23:28 UTC | 5% |
| 15 Oct, 22:36 UTC | 5% |
| 15 Oct, 22:29 UTC | 5% |
| 15 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 5% |
| 15 Oct, 19:28 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 18:55 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 17:25 UTC | 5% |
| 15 Oct, 12:37 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 12:23 UTC | 5% |
| 15 Oct, 11:53 UTC | 5% |
| 15 Oct, 08:57 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 08:16 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 07:55 UTC | 3% |
| 15 Oct, 07:06 UTC | 3% |
| 15 Oct, 04:22 UTC | 3% |
| 15 Oct, 03:48 UTC | 3% |
| 14 Oct, 05:56 UTC | 3% |
| 13 Oct, 17:35 UTC | 3% |
| 13 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 3% |
| 12 Oct, 12:18 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Oct, 23:04 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Oct, 22:39 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Oct, 22:19 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Oct, 21:47 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Oct, 21:25 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Oct, 18:01 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Oct, 17:34 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Oct, 15:08 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Oct, 13:36 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Oct, 13:28 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Oct, 12:54 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Oct, 12:27 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Oct, 11:54 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Oct, 11:18 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Oct, 09:28 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Oct, 08:43 UTC | 2% |
| 10 Oct, 08:24 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 2% |
| 10 Oct, 07:24 UTC | 2% |
| 10 Oct, 06:57 UTC | 2% |
| 10 Oct, 02:39 UTC | 5% |
| 10 Oct, 00:59 UTC | 5% |
| 10 Oct, 00:12 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 18:20 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 5% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? respond.
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 16 Oct 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 16 October at 14:01 UTC; Fortune followed 51 min later. The most recent article, from Fortune, appeared on 16 October at 14:52 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), Fortune.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? — the market puts it at 5%, with $3k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. For the market to resolve to 'Yes', Israel must announce by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET that its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory. The Shebaa Farms area counts as Israeli territory and does not count toward withdrawal. Readers often mistake a planned or future withdrawal for an actual one, which is insufficient.
- Lebanon — the market puts it at 3%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Israel and Lebanon establish formal diplomatic ties before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake general political dialogue or trade agreements for official normalization of relations.
- Before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 1%, with $7 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Israel and Qatar establish formal diplomatic ties before January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if this normalization does not occur by that date. Readers often mistake the closure of the UK consulate in East Jerusalem for the triggering event, but only Israeli-Qatari relations matter.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraQatar FM calls for Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon5%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraQatar announces ‘massive’ solar plant project in Lebanon5%
- FortuneQatar will help revive Lebanon’s economy by fixing its power grid and rebuilding the war-damaged south, prime minister said5%
- Current odds5%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Qatar announces ‘massive’ solar plant project in Lebanon Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Qatar FM calls for Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Qatar will help revive Lebanon’s economy by fixing its power grid and rebuilding the war-damaged south, prime minister said Fortune
Markets on this story
- Polymarket Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? 5%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Lebanon 3%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Before Jan 1, 2027 1%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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