Lebanon
Why it moved: −5 points at 10:59 UTC, after Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: Lebanese are watching Israel’s upcoming election, but few expect change — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 10:59 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 10:28 UTC | 7% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Israel and Lebanon establish formal diplomatic ties before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake general political dialogue or trade agreements for official normalization of relations.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%