Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
Implied probability 3%
24-hour volume$974
Total volume$269k
Liquidity$43k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 21:58 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 08:50 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 08:02 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 01:48 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 00:27 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 23:10 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 07:40 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 06:25 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 04:38 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 22:46 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 04:12 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 08:24 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 06:51 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 06:16 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 04:52 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 02:55 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 02:20 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 01:24 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 21:49 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 11:19 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 23:43 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 23:22 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 21:13 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 20:34 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 17:17 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 16:10 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 15:22 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 14:48 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 14:13 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 11:19 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 07:42 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 2% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
For the market to resolve to 'Yes', Israel must announce by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET that its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory. The Shebaa Farms area counts as Israeli territory and does not count toward withdrawal. Readers often mistake a planned or future withdrawal for an actual one, which is insufficient.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%
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