Pope Leo XIV to Undergo Lung Surgery for Nodule Removal
The pontiff announced he will have the procedure this week after doctors detected a localized nodule, with an expected one-week recovery.
First reported by Sky News, 10 min ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 7% |
| 9 Oct, 01:22 UTC | 7% |
The story so far
17 publishers have covered this in 27 articles since 11 Oct 2026. Sky News published first, on 11 October at 10:25 UTC; France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines followed 11 min later. The most recent article, from France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines, appeared on 12 October at 22:20 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Axios (major outlet), CBS News (major outlet), ABC News (major outlet), The Guardian (major outlet), NPR World (major outlet), The New York Times (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), The Hill News (major outlet), Sky News, France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines, South China Morning Post, Fox News World and 5 more, all listed under Sources below.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- USA — the market puts it at 7%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Pope Leo XIV physically enters and stays within the borders of the United States before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake a visit to France for a visit to the United States.
- Pope Leo XIV — the market puts it at 7%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump meets Pope Leo XIV in person between now and January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a visit to France as the resolution event, but only a direct meeting between Trump and the Pope counts.
- Pietro Parolin — the market puts it at 6%, closing 1 Jan 2070. The outcome is Yes if Pietro Parolin is elected Pope before January 1, 2070. The outcome is No if he is not elected by that date. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of his papacy rather than the specific calendar year.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on USA at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Sky NewsPope Leo to undergo surgery in coming days after nodule discovered on his lung7%
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines🔴Pope Leo says will undergo surgery for early-stage lung nodule7%
- AxiosPope Leo to have "nodule" removed from lung7%
- South China Morning PostPope Leo to undergo surgery for small growth on lung7%
- Fox News WorldPope Leo announces tumor on lung, surgery planned in 'next few days'7%
- BBC NewsPope Leo to have surgery after lump found on lung7%
- CBS NewsPope Leo to undergo surgery after nodular lesion found in lung, Vatican says7%
- ABC NewsPope Leo XIV will undergo surgery to remove a nodule on his lung7%
- Deutsche WellePope Leo XIV to undergo surgery to remove lump on lung7%
- The GuardianPope Leo to have surgery to remove nodule on his lung7%
Show 17 later sources
- Latest articlesPope Leo says will undergo surgery for small growth on lung7%
- NPR WorldPope Leo XIV to undergo lung surgery this week7%
- The New York TimesPope Leo Will Have Surgery to Remove Growth on Lung7%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraPope Leo to undergo surgery to remove lung nodule7%
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesPope Leo says he will undergo surgery for small growth on lung7%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraPope Leo XIV to undergo surgery after lump found in lung7%
- Rolling StonePope Leo XIV to Undergo Surgery After Nodule Found in Lung7%
- The Hill NewsPope Leo XIV to undergo surgery to remove a nodule on his lung7%
- CBS NewsPope Leo announces medical update7%
- MedPageToday.com - medical news for physiciansPope to Undergo Surgery; 4,080 U.S. Measles Cases; Ultrasound Issue Tied to 4 Deaths7%
- Deutsche WellePope lung nodule: Could it be cancer?7%
- CBS NewsPope Leo to go to hospital Tuesday for lung nodule surgery7%
- CBS NewsPope Leo announces lung surgery in rare move for pontiff7%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraPope Leo continues working after lung surgery announcement7%
- Sky NewsPope Leo cancels all public events ahead of lung surgery7%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraPope Leo to undergo surgery to remove lung nodule in Rome7%
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesWhat we know about Pope Leo XIV's planned lung operation this week7%
- Current odds7%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Pope Leo to undergo surgery to remove lung nodule in Rome Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Pope Leo continues working after lung surgery announcement Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Pope Leo announces lung surgery in rare move for pontiff CBS News ·
- Pope Leo to go to hospital Tuesday for lung nodule surgery CBS News ·
- Pope Leo announces medical update CBS News ·
- Pope Leo XIV to undergo surgery to remove a nodule on his lung The Hill News ·
Show 21 more sources
- Pope Leo XIV to undergo surgery after lump found in lung Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Pope Leo to undergo surgery to remove lung nodule Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Pope Leo Will Have Surgery to Remove Growth on Lung The New York Times ·
- Pope Leo XIV to undergo lung surgery this week NPR World ·
- Pope Leo to have surgery to remove nodule on his lung The Guardian ·
- Pope Leo XIV will undergo surgery to remove a nodule on his lung ABC News ·
- Pope Leo to undergo surgery after nodular lesion found in lung, Vatican says CBS News ·
- Pope Leo to have "nodule" removed from lung Axios ·
- What we know about Pope Leo XIV's planned lung operation this week France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
- Pope Leo cancels all public events ahead of lung surgery Sky News
- Pope lung nodule: Could it be cancer? Deutsche Welle
- Pope to Undergo Surgery; 4,080 U.S. Measles Cases; Ultrasound Issue Tied to 4 Deaths MedPageToday.com - medical news for physicians
- Pope Leo XIV to Undergo Surgery After Nodule Found in Lung Rolling Stone
- Pope Leo says he will undergo surgery for small growth on lung France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
- Pope Leo says will undergo surgery for small growth on lung Latest articles
- Pope Leo XIV to undergo surgery to remove lump on lung Deutsche Welle
- Pope Leo to have surgery after lump found on lung BBC News
- Pope Leo announces tumor on lung, surgery planned in 'next few days' Fox News World
- Pope Leo to undergo surgery for small growth on lung South China Morning Post
- 🔴Pope Leo says will undergo surgery for early-stage lung nodule France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
- Pope Leo to undergo surgery in coming days after nodule discovered on his lung Sky News
Markets on this story
- Kalshi USA 7%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Pope Leo XIV 7%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Pietro Parolin 6%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Pope Leo XIV
- Vatican