USA
Why it moved: +3 points at 09:28 UTC, after ABC News: How France handles its strict secularism as it prepares for a papal visit — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 6% |
| 23 Sept, 09:28 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Sept, 09:14 UTC | 3% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Pope Leo XIV physically enters and stays within the borders of the United States before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake a visit to France for a visit to the United States.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 6%
- No 94%