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Poll Shows Trump, Hegseth Losing Military and Veteran Support

A Common Defense survey finds 67 percent of active-duty personnel and veterans believe military decisions are driven by politics.

1 publisher · 1 article · first seen 2 Nov 2026 · updated 2d ago

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The odds

How the odds moved · Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
0%50%100%43%12 Sept, 18:39 UTCnowThe Hill: Trump, Hegseth under water on approval from military members, veterans: Poll · 2 Nov, 21:09 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
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The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 2 Nov 2026. The Hill published first, on 2 November at 21:09 UTC.

2 prediction markets price this story:

  • Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? — the market puts it at 43%, with $254k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Pete Hegseth stops being Secretary of Defense at any point before December 31. An announcement of his resignation or removal before that date triggers an immediate Yes resolution, even if the change happens later. Readers often mistake the announcement deadline for the actual effective date of his departure.
  • Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? — the market puts it at 37%, with $125k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Pete Hegseth stops serving as Secretary of Defense at any point before November 30 at 11:59 PM ET, including if he announces his resignation or removal by that deadline even if the change happens later. It resolves to No if he remains in office for the entire period up to that specific time and date.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. Trump, Hegseth under water on approval from military members, veterans: Poll The Hill ·

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Polymarket Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? 43% +4 $254k 24hends 1 Jan 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Polymarket Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? 37% +10 $125k 24hends 1 Dec 2026

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

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