Palestinian Authority Postpones Legislative Elections Amid Internal Rifts and Logistical Hurdles
The Palestinian Authority delays the November vote due to internal Fatah divisions and Israeli restrictions, despite EU offers to send observers.
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 92% |
| 9 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Oct, 14:00 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Oct, 13:28 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Oct, 12:52 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Oct, 11:29 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Oct, 10:01 UTC | 91% |
| 9 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 91% |
| 9 Oct, 08:48 UTC | 91% |
| 9 Oct, 08:28 UTC | 91% |
| 9 Oct, 07:16 UTC | 91% |
| 9 Oct, 05:45 UTC | 90% |
| 9 Oct, 05:27 UTC | 91% |
| 9 Oct, 03:02 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Oct, 02:28 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Oct, 01:36 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Oct, 01:22 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 23:49 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 22:29 UTC | 93% |
| 8 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 93% |
| 8 Oct, 21:20 UTC | 93% |
| 8 Oct, 20:47 UTC | 93% |
| 8 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 94% |
| 8 Oct, 19:17 UTC | 94% |
| 8 Oct, 18:54 UTC | 94% |
| 8 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 94% |
| 8 Oct, 17:50 UTC | 95% |
| 8 Oct, 17:16 UTC | 96% |
| 8 Oct, 16:46 UTC | 96% |
| 8 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 13:51 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 12:45 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 12:09 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 11:54 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 11:25 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 10:14 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 09:09 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 08:55 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 08:17 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 07:58 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 07:13 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 06:53 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 06:26 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 05:58 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 05:23 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 04:44 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 04:23 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 03:55 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 03:22 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 02:54 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 02:15 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 00:41 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 00:27 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 23:46 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 23:11 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 22:25 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 21:58 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 21:18 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 20:50 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 18:47 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 18:20 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 17:52 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 17:02 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 16:55 UTC | 93% |
| 7 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 15:24 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 14:48 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 14:26 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 13:51 UTC | 91% |
| 7 Oct, 13:19 UTC | 91% |
| 7 Oct, 12:50 UTC | 91% |
| 7 Oct, 12:26 UTC | 91% |
| 7 Oct, 11:59 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 11:17 UTC | 89% |
| 7 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 89% |
| 7 Oct, 09:15 UTC | 89% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 90% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 90% |
| 7 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 89% |
| 6 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 88% |
| 6 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 88% |
| 6 Oct, 14:37 UTC | 87% |
| 6 Oct, 12:34 UTC | 88% |
| 6 Oct, 09:48 UTC | 93% |
| 6 Oct, 09:25 UTC | 93% |
| 6 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 93% |
| 6 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 92% |
| 6 Oct, 07:25 UTC | 93% |
| 6 Oct, 06:59 UTC | 93% |
| 6 Oct, 03:42 UTC | 90% |
| 6 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 88% |
| 6 Oct, 02:30 UTC | 88% |
| 6 Oct, 02:10 UTC | 88% |
| 6 Oct, 01:57 UTC | 90% |
| 6 Oct, 00:36 UTC | 88% |
| 6 Oct, 00:23 UTC | 89% |
| 5 Oct, 23:42 UTC | 88% |
| 5 Oct, 23:29 UTC | 89% |
| 5 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 90% |
| 5 Oct, 22:15 UTC | 91% |
| 5 Oct, 21:54 UTC | 91% |
| 5 Oct, 21:12 UTC | 90% |
| 5 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 90% |
| 5 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 91% |
| 5 Oct, 19:21 UTC | 92% |
| 5 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Oct, 16:03 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Oct, 15:42 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Oct, 14:53 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Oct, 13:19 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 92% |
| 5 Oct, 10:28 UTC | 92% |
| 5 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 92% |
| 5 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 92% |
| 5 Oct, 08:34 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Oct, 06:55 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Oct, 06:09 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Oct, 04:40 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Oct, 04:13 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Oct, 02:27 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Oct, 01:48 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 92% |
| 5 Oct, 00:05 UTC | 91% |
| 4 Oct, 23:04 UTC | 91% |
| 4 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 91% |
| 4 Oct, 21:31 UTC | 91% |
| 4 Oct, 20:32 UTC | 91% |
| 4 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 91% |
| 4 Oct, 18:33 UTC | 91% |
| 4 Oct, 18:13 UTC | 91% |
| 4 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 91% |
| 4 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 91% |
| 4 Oct, 16:48 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Oct, 16:25 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Oct, 14:14 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Oct, 13:40 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Oct, 13:24 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Oct, 11:49 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Oct, 10:39 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Oct, 10:20 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Oct, 05:37 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Oct, 05:04 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Oct, 04:58 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Oct, 03:53 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Oct, 03:03 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Oct, 00:01 UTC | 90% |
| 3 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 90% |
| 3 Oct, 23:09 UTC | 90% |
| 3 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 90% |
| 3 Oct, 20:50 UTC | 91% |
| 3 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 91% |
| 3 Oct, 16:07 UTC | 91% |
| 3 Oct, 14:34 UTC | 91% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Will Israel election happen as scheduled? respond.
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 6 Oct 2026. Times of India published first, on 6 October at 17:15 UTC; The New York Times followed 69h 43m later. The most recent article, from The New York Times, appeared on 9 October at 14:58 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The New York Times (major outlet), Times of India.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will Israel election happen as scheduled? — the market puts it at 92%, with $4k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 28 Oct 2026. The market resolves to "Yes" if nationwide general voting for Israel's 26th Knesset takes place on October 27, 2026. It resolves to "No" if that nationwide voting happens before that date or does not occur by the end of October 27, 2026. Readers often mistakenly believe that early or special voting (like for soldiers or citizens abroad) determines the outcome, but only the date of general election-day voting counts.
- Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? — the market puts it at 2%, with $4k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. Yes resolves if Mahmoud Abbas permanently leaves his office before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. No resolves if he remains in power through that deadline or serves only in a caretaker capacity. Readers often mistake temporary suspensions or resignation announcements for permanent removal.
- Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? — the market puts it at 15%, with $471 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 28 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Likud wins fewer than 20 seats in the October 27, 2026 election, and No otherwise. Seats won by a joint list or merged party count toward Likud's total. Readers often mistake the October 31, 2027 deadline for the resolution date instead of the cutoff for definitive results.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will Israel election happen as scheduled? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Times of IndiaEU ready to send observers for first Palestinian parliamentary vote in nearly 20 years87%
- Times of IndiaPalestine factions could postpone elections amid Israeli complications, internal feud92%▲5 points since the previous source
- The New York TimesPalestinian Authority Says Elections Are to Be Postponed92%▼1 points since the previous source
- Current odds92%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Polymarket Will Israel election happen as scheduled? 92% −1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? 2%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? 15%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Palestinian Authority
- Fatah
- Mahmoud Abbas
- European Union
- Israel