Will Israel election happen as scheduled?
Why it moved: +4 points at 16:46 UTC, after Times of India: Palestine factions could postpone elections amid Israeli complications, internal feud — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 93% |
| 9 Oct, 16:16 UTC | 93% |
| 9 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Oct, 14:00 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Oct, 13:28 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Oct, 12:52 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Oct, 11:29 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Oct, 10:01 UTC | 91% |
| 9 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 91% |
| 9 Oct, 08:48 UTC | 91% |
| 9 Oct, 08:28 UTC | 91% |
| 9 Oct, 07:16 UTC | 91% |
| 9 Oct, 05:45 UTC | 90% |
| 9 Oct, 05:27 UTC | 91% |
| 9 Oct, 03:02 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Oct, 02:28 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Oct, 01:36 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Oct, 01:22 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 23:49 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 22:29 UTC | 93% |
| 8 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 93% |
| 8 Oct, 21:20 UTC | 93% |
| 8 Oct, 20:47 UTC | 93% |
| 8 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 94% |
| 8 Oct, 19:17 UTC | 94% |
| 8 Oct, 18:54 UTC | 94% |
| 8 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 94% |
| 8 Oct, 17:50 UTC | 95% |
| 8 Oct, 17:16 UTC | 96% |
| 8 Oct, 16:46 UTC | 96% |
| 8 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 13:51 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 12:45 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 12:09 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 11:54 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 11:25 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 10:14 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 09:09 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 08:55 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 08:17 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 07:58 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 07:13 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 06:53 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 06:26 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 05:58 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 05:23 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 04:44 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 04:23 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 03:55 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 03:22 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 02:54 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 02:15 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 00:41 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 00:27 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 23:46 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 23:11 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 22:25 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 21:58 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 21:18 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 20:50 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 18:47 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 18:20 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 17:52 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 17:02 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 16:55 UTC | 93% |
| 7 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 15:24 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 14:48 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 14:26 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 13:51 UTC | 91% |
| 7 Oct, 13:19 UTC | 91% |
| 7 Oct, 12:50 UTC | 91% |
| 7 Oct, 12:26 UTC | 91% |
| 7 Oct, 11:59 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 11:17 UTC | 89% |
| 7 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 89% |
| 7 Oct, 09:15 UTC | 89% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 90% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 90% |
| 7 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 89% |
| 6 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 88% |
| 6 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 88% |
| 6 Oct, 14:37 UTC | 87% |
| 6 Oct, 12:34 UTC | 88% |
| 6 Oct, 09:48 UTC | 93% |
| 6 Oct, 09:25 UTC | 93% |
| 6 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 93% |
| 6 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 92% |
| 6 Oct, 07:25 UTC | 93% |
| 6 Oct, 06:59 UTC | 93% |
| 6 Oct, 03:42 UTC | 90% |
| 6 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 88% |
| 6 Oct, 02:30 UTC | 88% |
| 6 Oct, 02:10 UTC | 88% |
| 6 Oct, 01:57 UTC | 90% |
| 6 Oct, 00:36 UTC | 88% |
| 6 Oct, 00:23 UTC | 89% |
| 5 Oct, 23:42 UTC | 88% |
| 5 Oct, 23:29 UTC | 89% |
| 5 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 90% |
| 5 Oct, 22:15 UTC | 91% |
| 5 Oct, 21:54 UTC | 91% |
| 5 Oct, 21:12 UTC | 90% |
| 5 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 90% |
| 5 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 91% |
| 5 Oct, 19:21 UTC | 92% |
| 5 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Oct, 16:03 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Oct, 15:42 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Oct, 14:53 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Oct, 13:19 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 92% |
| 5 Oct, 10:28 UTC | 92% |
| 5 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 92% |
| 5 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 92% |
| 5 Oct, 08:34 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Oct, 06:55 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Oct, 06:09 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Oct, 04:40 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Oct, 04:13 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Oct, 02:27 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Oct, 01:48 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 92% |
| 5 Oct, 00:05 UTC | 91% |
| 4 Oct, 23:04 UTC | 91% |
| 4 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 91% |
| 4 Oct, 21:31 UTC | 91% |
| 4 Oct, 20:32 UTC | 91% |
| 4 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 91% |
| 4 Oct, 18:33 UTC | 91% |
| 4 Oct, 18:13 UTC | 91% |
| 4 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 91% |
| 4 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 91% |
| 4 Oct, 16:48 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Oct, 16:25 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Oct, 14:14 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Oct, 13:40 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Oct, 13:24 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Oct, 11:49 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Oct, 10:39 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Oct, 10:20 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Oct, 05:37 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Oct, 05:04 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Oct, 04:58 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Oct, 03:53 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Oct, 03:03 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Oct, 00:01 UTC | 90% |
| 3 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 90% |
| 3 Oct, 23:09 UTC | 90% |
| 3 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 90% |
| 3 Oct, 20:50 UTC | 91% |
| 3 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 91% |
| 3 Oct, 16:07 UTC | 91% |
| 3 Oct, 14:34 UTC | 91% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if nationwide general voting for Israel's 26th Knesset takes place on October 27, 2026. It resolves to "No" if that nationwide voting happens before that date or does not occur by the end of October 27, 2026. Readers often mistakenly believe that early or special voting (like for soldiers or citizens abroad) determines the outcome, but only the date of general election-day voting counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 93%
- No 7%
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