Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Implied probability 27%−2
24-hour volume$218k
Total volume$10.7M
Liquidity$637k
Resolves28 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 27% |
| 24 Oct, 07:27 UTC | 27% |
| 24 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 28% |
| 23 Oct, 18:40 UTC | 28% |
| 23 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 30% |
| 23 Oct, 15:34 UTC | 28% |
| 23 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 29% |
| 23 Oct, 13:04 UTC | 30% |
| 23 Oct, 12:22 UTC | 29% |
| 23 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 28% |
| 23 Oct, 11:20 UTC | 29% |
| 23 Oct, 10:31 UTC | 30% |
| 23 Oct, 10:17 UTC | 29% |
| 23 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 29% |
| 23 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 29% |
| 23 Oct, 07:26 UTC | 29% |
| 23 Oct, 06:32 UTC | 28% |
| 23 Oct, 06:25 UTC | 30% |
| 23 Oct, 02:33 UTC | 28% |
| 22 Oct, 23:48 UTC | 30% |
| 22 Oct, 23:20 UTC | 28% |
| 22 Oct, 22:18 UTC | 30% |
| 22 Oct, 20:13 UTC | 28% |
| 22 Oct, 19:30 UTC | 31% |
| 22 Oct, 18:41 UTC | 30% |
| 22 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 29% |
| 22 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 29% |
| 22 Oct, 15:57 UTC | 29% |
| 22 Oct, 15:08 UTC | 29% |
| 22 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 29% |
| 22 Oct, 14:17 UTC | 30% |
| 22 Oct, 11:15 UTC | 29% |
| 21 Oct, 18:41 UTC | 27% |
| 21 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 28% |
| 21 Oct, 15:38 UTC | 27% |
| 21 Oct, 12:49 UTC | 27% |
| 20 Oct, 20:38 UTC | 28% |
| 20 Oct, 18:38 UTC | 27% |
| 20 Oct, 18:24 UTC | 27% |
| 20 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 27% |
| 20 Oct, 16:41 UTC | 29% |
| 20 Oct, 16:20 UTC | 28% |
| 20 Oct, 15:16 UTC | 30% |
| 20 Oct, 14:33 UTC | 31% |
| 20 Oct, 14:01 UTC | 28% |
| 20 Oct, 13:20 UTC | 30% |
| 20 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 28% |
| 20 Oct, 09:19 UTC | 29% |
| 20 Oct, 08:30 UTC | 27% |
| 20 Oct, 06:02 UTC | 28% |
| 19 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 28% |
| 18 Oct, 23:57 UTC | 30% |
| 18 Oct, 20:53 UTC | 31% |
| 18 Oct, 19:45 UTC | 32% |
| 18 Oct, 18:22 UTC | 33% |
| 18 Oct, 17:03 UTC | 32% |
| 18 Oct, 16:45 UTC | 33% |
| 18 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 32% |
| 18 Oct, 15:29 UTC | 32% |
| 18 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 31% |
| 18 Oct, 14:13 UTC | 29% |
| 18 Oct, 13:37 UTC | 29% |
| 18 Oct, 13:23 UTC | 30% |
| 18 Oct, 10:15 UTC | 28% |
| 18 Oct, 08:14 UTC | 28% |
| 18 Oct, 07:42 UTC | 28% |
| 17 Oct, 23:10 UTC | 28% |
| 17 Oct, 20:57 UTC | 27% |
| 17 Oct, 19:44 UTC | 28% |
| 17 Oct, 18:03 UTC | 28% |
| 17 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 28% |
| 17 Oct, 17:14 UTC | 28% |
| 17 Oct, 16:09 UTC | 27% |
| 17 Oct, 11:53 UTC | 28% |
| 17 Oct, 09:52 UTC | 28% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if Benjamin Netanyahu is formally sworn in as Prime Minister after an election. The No outcome applies if someone else takes that oath or if no new Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027. Readers often mistake the date of a political tour or appointment for the official swearing-in ceremony.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 27%
- No 74%
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