Padres rely on Fernando Tatis Jr. for NLDS comeback
The team needs their star player to mirror his perseverance if they are to mount a National League Division Series comeback.
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 17:59 UTC | 92% |
| 3 Oct, 02:40 UTC | 90% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 6 Oct 2026. www.espn.com published first, on 6 October at 11:29 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- San Diego — the market puts it at 92%, with $203 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 25 Mar 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Fernando Tatis Jr. plays for San Diego before March 25, 2027. It resolves to No if he does not join the team by that date. Readers often mistake the linked story about the Padres' playoff win as the deciding factor, but only his contract status matters.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. — the market puts it at 1%, closing 8 Dec 2026. The outcome is Yes if Fernando Tatis Jr. wins the 2026 National League Gold Glove award for right field. The outcome is No if he does not win that specific award. Readers often mistake the deadline, as the resolution depends on the official award announcement rather than a game result or season end date.
- Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? — resolved “No” on 8 Oct 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series. The No outcome applies if any other team wins or if the Padres are eliminated from playoff contention. Readers often mistake early playoff victories, like the linked Wild Card series win, for the final resolution.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi San Diego 92% +2
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Fernando Tatis Jr. 1%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? No 2h ago
The market favoured No at 95% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Padres