Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series?
The market favoured No at 95% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$15k
Total volume$1.8M
Liquidity$0
Resolved31 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 8 Oct, 08:17 UTC | 0% |
| 8 Oct, 05:10 UTC | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 04:37 UTC | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 04:01 UTC | 2% |
| 8 Oct, 03:55 UTC | 2% |
| 8 Oct, 03:29 UTC | 5% |
| 8 Oct, 02:54 UTC | 4% |
| 8 Oct, 02:15 UTC | 4% |
| 8 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 4% |
| 8 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 5% |
| 8 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 5% |
| 8 Oct, 00:21 UTC | 6% |
| 7 Oct, 23:46 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 23:24 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 22:25 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 21:58 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 20:57 UTC | 6% |
| 7 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 6% |
| 7 Oct, 19:49 UTC | 6% |
| 7 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 18:47 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 18:20 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 17:52 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 17:16 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 16:42 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 15:24 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 14:26 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 13:51 UTC | 6% |
| 7 Oct, 13:26 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 09:03 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 12:34 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Oct, 11:13 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Oct, 08:04 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Oct, 06:20 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Oct, 05:41 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Oct, 05:28 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Oct, 04:55 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Oct, 04:29 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Oct, 03:55 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Oct, 02:56 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Oct, 01:50 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 01:16 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Oct, 18:35 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 17:51 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Oct, 16:10 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Oct, 15:56 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Oct, 15:21 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Oct, 11:57 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 10:54 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 10:15 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 09:21 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 07:49 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 06:36 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 05:37 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 05:24 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 04:46 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 04:20 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 03:52 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 03:13 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 02:40 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 02:14 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 01:48 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 00:18 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Oct, 23:51 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 8% |
| 4 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 9% |
| 4 Oct, 21:50 UTC | 8% |
| 4 Oct, 21:24 UTC | 8% |
| 4 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 7% |
| 4 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Oct, 19:28 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Oct, 18:54 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Oct, 16:48 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Oct, 16:25 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Oct, 15:12 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Oct, 13:54 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Oct, 13:24 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Oct, 12:26 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Oct, 11:30 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Oct, 10:20 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Oct, 09:47 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Oct, 09:21 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Oct, 08:49 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Oct, 07:19 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Oct, 06:33 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Oct, 06:14 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Oct, 05:37 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Oct, 05:24 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Oct, 04:58 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Oct, 04:26 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Oct, 03:53 UTC | 8% |
| 4 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 11% |
| 4 Oct, 02:56 UTC | 11% |
| 4 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 12% |
| 4 Oct, 01:59 UTC | 13% |
| 4 Oct, 01:26 UTC | 12% |
| 4 Oct, 00:47 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Oct, 23:29 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Oct, 20:50 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Oct, 19:49 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Oct, 19:29 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Oct, 18:43 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Oct, 17:14 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Oct, 16:53 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Oct, 16:13 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Oct, 15:54 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Oct, 13:58 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Oct, 12:15 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Oct, 11:47 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Oct, 11:28 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Oct, 08:48 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Oct, 08:17 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Oct, 07:51 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Oct, 06:01 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Oct, 05:10 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Oct, 04:38 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Oct, 04:18 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Oct, 03:50 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Oct, 03:25 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Oct, 02:59 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Oct, 02:02 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Oct, 01:21 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Oct, 00:42 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Oct, 00:10 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Oct, 23:32 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Oct, 23:18 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Oct, 22:23 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Oct, 20:18 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Oct, 19:30 UTC | 9% |
| 2 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 9% |
| 2 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Oct, 17:59 UTC | 11% |
| 2 Oct, 17:18 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Oct, 16:57 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Oct, 16:23 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Oct, 15:37 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Oct, 15:23 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Oct, 13:25 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Oct, 12:08 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 11% |
| 2 Oct, 11:29 UTC | 11% |
| 2 Oct, 10:46 UTC | 11% |
| 2 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 11% |
| 2 Oct, 08:45 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Oct, 08:02 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Oct, 07:42 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 9% |
| 2 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Oct, 06:24 UTC | 9% |
| 2 Oct, 05:58 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Oct, 05:25 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Oct, 04:52 UTC | 11% |
| 2 Oct, 04:28 UTC | 11% |
| 2 Oct, 03:55 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Oct, 03:15 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Oct, 01:20 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Oct, 00:10 UTC | 10% |
| 1 Oct, 23:38 UTC | 10% |
| 1 Oct, 23:18 UTC | 10% |
| 1 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 11% |
| 1 Oct, 22:26 UTC | 11% |
| 1 Oct, 21:59 UTC | 11% |
| 1 Oct, 21:16 UTC | 12% |
| 1 Oct, 20:49 UTC | 12% |
| 1 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 12% |
| 1 Oct, 19:41 UTC | 11% |
| 1 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 11% |
| 1 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 11% |
| 1 Oct, 18:28 UTC | 11% |
| 1 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 11% |
| 1 Oct, 15:50 UTC | 10% |
| 1 Oct, 15:00 UTC | 11% |
| 1 Oct, 14:45 UTC | 11% |
| 1 Oct, 14:29 UTC | 11% |
| 1 Oct, 13:38 UTC | 11% |
| 1 Oct, 13:21 UTC | 11% |
| 1 Oct, 12:38 UTC | 12% |
| 1 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 11% |
| 1 Oct, 11:53 UTC | 11% |
| 1 Oct, 11:18 UTC | 11% |
| 1 Oct, 10:57 UTC | 11% |
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series. The No outcome applies if any other team wins or if the Padres are eliminated from playoff contention. Readers often mistake early playoff victories, like the linked Wild Card series win, for the final resolution.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →