New Mexico Senator Ben Ray Luján Wins Second Term Hot: Odds moved 47 points in 24 hours
The incumbent Democrat defeats Republican Larry Marker in the blue state to secure re-election.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 04:33 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 02:41 UTC | 40% |
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | 47% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 4 Nov 2026. The Hill published first, on 4 November at 02:35 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Luján, 21+ pts — the market puts it at 94%, with $91 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Mexico by a margin of at least 21 percentage points. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked headline about Senator Luján’s past win for the condition that triggers the resolution.
- Will the Democrats win the New Mexico governor race in 2026? — resolved “Yes” on 4 Nov 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 New Mexico gubernatorial election. The No outcome applies if any other candidate wins or if the race remains uncalled by all resolution sources until official certification.
- New Mexico — the market puts it at 1%, closing 3 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if New Mexico has the largest Harris-minus-Trump vote margin among all states that elect a Republican senator in 2026. It resolves to No if any other state meets that criteria or if no Republican wins a Senate seat in 2026. Readers often mistake the linked story about Senator Luján for the deciding factor, but his election does not determine the outcome.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Luján, 21+ pts 94% +47
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Will the Democrats win the New Mexico governor race in 2026? Yes 2h ago
The market favoured Yes at 96% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Kalshi New Mexico 1%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Ben Ray Luján
- Larry Marker
- New Mexico