New Mexico
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$12k
Liquidity$12k
Resolves3 Jan 2027
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if New Mexico has the largest Harris-minus-Trump vote margin among all states that elect a Republican senator in 2026. It resolves to No if any other state meets that criteria or if no Republican wins a Senate seat in 2026. Readers often mistake the linked story about Senator Luján for the deciding factor, but his election does not determine the outcome.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%