Luján, 21+ pts
Why it moved: +54 points at 04:33 UTC, after The Hill: Luján wins second term as New Mexico senator — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 04:33 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 02:41 UTC | 40% |
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | 47% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Mexico by a margin of at least 21 percentage points. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked headline about Senator Luján’s past win for the condition that triggers the resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 94%
- No 6%