Midterm Senate Race Becomes 'Pure Toss-Up' Ahead of November Vote
Decision Desk HQ shifts its forecast to a pure toss-up for the upper chamber with eight weeks remaining.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
All 1 source published before price tracking began
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 50% |
| 12 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 50% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 8 Sept 2026. The Hill News published first, on 8 September at 11:59 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House — the market puts it at 50%, with $5k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2026.
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? — the market puts it at 53%, with $22k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2026.
- Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? — the market puts it at 1%, with $20 traded in the last 24 hours.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Polymarket 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House 50%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? 53%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? 1%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Decision Desk HQ
- Senate