Merz Approval Rating Hits Record Low After CDU State Election Losses

The story so far

2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 2 Oct 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 2 October at 11:31 UTC; Deutsche Welle followed 44h 58m later. The most recent article, from Deutsche Welle, appeared on 4 October at 08:29 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), Deutsche Welle.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Before Nov 1, 2026 — the market puts it at 5%, closing 1 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Friedrich Merz officially announces his intention to leave office or actually leaves as Chancellor of Germany before November 1, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake a drop in approval ratings for leaving office.
• Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? — the market puts it at 9%, with $735 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Friedrich Merz stops being Chancellor at any point before December 31, 2026, including via resignation or removal. An early announcement of his departure triggers an immediate Yes resolution, even if the change takes effect later. Readers often mistake the deadline for the date the resignation becomes effective rather than the date it is announced.
• CDU/CSU — the market puts it at 16%, closing 25 Mar 2030. The outcome is Yes if the CDU/CSU coalition wins the next German Bundestag election. The outcome is No if they do not win that specific election. Readers often mistake current approval ratings or state election results for the final resolution, but only the national parliamentary vote counts.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.