Mbappe and Yamal Fail to Win Ballon d'Or
Kylian Mbappé and Lamine Yamal did not claim soccer's top individual prize despite their recent achievements.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 26 Oct, 23:10 UTC | 100% |
| 26 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 81% |
| 26 Oct, 22:22 UTC | 75% |
| 26 Oct, 21:45 UTC | 73% |
| 26 Oct, 21:25 UTC | 78% |
| 26 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 74% |
| 26 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 81% |
| 26 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 81% |
| 26 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 81% |
| 26 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 84% |
| 26 Oct, 18:26 UTC | 81% |
| 26 Oct, 17:36 UTC | 78% |
| 26 Oct, 17:21 UTC | 79% |
| 26 Oct, 16:59 UTC | 77% |
| 26 Oct, 16:24 UTC | 81% |
| 26 Oct, 15:39 UTC | 79% |
| 26 Oct, 15:17 UTC | 78% |
| 26 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 74% |
| 26 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 71% |
| 26 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 73% |
| 26 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 74% |
| 26 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 74% |
| 26 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 76% |
| 26 Oct, 10:07 UTC | 76% |
| 26 Oct, 09:46 UTC | 77% |
| 26 Oct, 09:17 UTC | 76% |
| 26 Oct, 08:37 UTC | 75% |
| 26 Oct, 06:20 UTC | 76% |
| 26 Oct, 05:53 UTC | 76% |
| 26 Oct, 05:11 UTC | 77% |
| 26 Oct, 04:57 UTC | 77% |
| 26 Oct, 04:29 UTC | 75% |
| 26 Oct, 03:50 UTC | 73% |
| 26 Oct, 03:27 UTC | 73% |
| 26 Oct, 02:20 UTC | 74% |
| 26 Oct, 01:34 UTC | 75% |
| 26 Oct, 01:12 UTC | 69% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 67% |
| 25 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 70% |
| 25 Oct, 22:37 UTC | 71% |
| 25 Oct, 22:20 UTC | 72% |
| 25 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 71% |
| 25 Oct, 20:47 UTC | 70% |
| 25 Oct, 20:12 UTC | 69% |
| 25 Oct, 18:32 UTC | 69% |
| 25 Oct, 18:18 UTC | 70% |
| 25 Oct, 16:35 UTC | 69% |
| 25 Oct, 16:28 UTC | 70% |
| 25 Oct, 15:46 UTC | 68% |
| 25 Oct, 15:17 UTC | 69% |
| 25 Oct, 14:34 UTC | 69% |
| 25 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 69% |
| 25 Oct, 13:56 UTC | 66% |
| 25 Oct, 13:25 UTC | 67% |
| 25 Oct, 12:56 UTC | 67% |
| 25 Oct, 11:49 UTC | 70% |
| 25 Oct, 11:28 UTC | 73% |
| 25 Oct, 10:42 UTC | 73% |
| 25 Oct, 10:06 UTC | 74% |
| 25 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 75% |
| 25 Oct, 09:28 UTC | 74% |
| 25 Oct, 08:32 UTC | 73% |
| 25 Oct, 07:46 UTC | 74% |
| 25 Oct, 05:51 UTC | 75% |
| 25 Oct, 04:36 UTC | 76% |
| 25 Oct, 02:56 UTC | 76% |
| 25 Oct, 02:07 UTC | 76% |
| 25 Oct, 00:36 UTC | 74% |
| 24 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 76% |
| 24 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 78% |
| 24 Oct, 18:15 UTC | 77% |
| 24 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 78% |
| 24 Oct, 17:29 UTC | 79% |
| 24 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 83% |
| 24 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 82% |
| 24 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 83% |
| 24 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 78% |
| 24 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 77% |
| 24 Oct, 14:20 UTC | 76% |
| 24 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 77% |
| 24 Oct, 13:21 UTC | 78% |
| 24 Oct, 12:40 UTC | 79% |
| 24 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 77% |
| 24 Oct, 11:50 UTC | 80% |
| 24 Oct, 11:26 UTC | 77% |
| 24 Oct, 10:03 UTC | 76% |
| 24 Oct, 09:57 UTC | 77% |
| 24 Oct, 09:22 UTC | 76% |
| 24 Oct, 08:57 UTC | 76% |
| 24 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 76% |
| 24 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 76% |
| 24 Oct, 03:51 UTC | 75% |
| 23 Oct, 22:28 UTC | 74% |
| 23 Oct, 20:19 UTC | 74% |
| 23 Oct, 19:12 UTC | 75% |
| 23 Oct, 18:48 UTC | 74% |
| 23 Oct, 18:00 UTC | 73% |
| 23 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 73% |
| 23 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 73% |
| 23 Oct, 16:50 UTC | 72% |
| 23 Oct, 15:49 UTC | 73% |
| 23 Oct, 15:06 UTC | 73% |
| 23 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 74% |
| 23 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 74% |
| 23 Oct, 13:45 UTC | 75% |
| 23 Oct, 13:19 UTC | 76% |
| 23 Oct, 12:22 UTC | 77% |
| 23 Oct, 11:06 UTC | 76% |
| 23 Oct, 10:31 UTC | 73% |
| 23 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 73% |
| 23 Oct, 08:39 UTC | 73% |
| 23 Oct, 06:39 UTC | 72% |
| 23 Oct, 05:39 UTC | 72% |
| 23 Oct, 05:18 UTC | 73% |
| 23 Oct, 02:33 UTC | 72% |
| 23 Oct, 01:18 UTC | 71% |
| 22 Oct, 19:37 UTC | 71% |
| 22 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 71% |
| 22 Oct, 18:13 UTC | 69% |
| 22 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 72% |
| 22 Oct, 16:47 UTC | 73% |
| 22 Oct, 16:12 UTC | 74% |
| 22 Oct, 13:42 UTC | 73% |
| 22 Oct, 13:12 UTC | 72% |
| 22 Oct, 09:47 UTC | 73% |
| 22 Oct, 07:54 UTC | 72% |
| 22 Oct, 06:46 UTC | 71% |
| 22 Oct, 05:39 UTC | 70% |
| 21 Oct, 21:41 UTC | 73% |
| 21 Oct, 19:10 UTC | 71% |
| 21 Oct, 18:34 UTC | 71% |
| 21 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 70% |
| 21 Oct, 17:50 UTC | 69% |
| 21 Oct, 15:46 UTC | 68% |
| 21 Oct, 14:13 UTC | 66% |
| 21 Oct, 13:19 UTC | 65% |
| 21 Oct, 12:42 UTC | 66% |
| 21 Oct, 10:24 UTC | 66% |
| 21 Oct, 07:50 UTC | 67% |
| 21 Oct, 06:16 UTC | 69% |
| 21 Oct, 04:52 UTC | 68% |
| 21 Oct, 02:55 UTC | 69% |
| 21 Oct, 01:52 UTC | 69% |
| 21 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 69% |
| 20 Oct, 23:49 UTC | 68% |
| 20 Oct, 22:52 UTC | 67% |
| 20 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 68% |
| 20 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 68% |
| 20 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 69% |
| 20 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 68% |
| 20 Oct, 19:48 UTC | 70% |
| 20 Oct, 18:45 UTC | 69% |
| 20 Oct, 18:24 UTC | 69% |
| 20 Oct, 16:34 UTC | 70% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 25 Oct 2026. SI Feed published first, on 25 October at 23:16 UTC; www.espn.com followed 39h 20m later. The most recent article, from www.espn.com, appeared on 27 October at 14:36 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: www.espn.com (major outlet), SI Feed.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? — resolved “Mbappé” on 27 Oct 2026.
- Will Kylian Mbappé finish 4th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or? — resolved “No” on 27 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Kylian Mbappé is officially ranked fourth in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or list published by France Football or UEFA. If two or more players tie for fourth place, the winner is determined by alphabetical order of their names. Readers often mistake the date of the London ceremony for the deadline; the actual cutoff is November 2, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
- Kylian Mbappe — the market puts it at 57%, with $336 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 14 Jun 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Kylian Mbappe finishes as the top goal scorer in the 2026-27 La Liga regular season. It resolves to No if he does not lead the league in goals. Readers often mistake this for a prediction of his total career goals or confuse the specific 2026-27 season with other campaigns.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? Mbappé 2h ago
The market favoured Mbappé at 70% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Resolved Will Kylian Mbappé finish 4th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 2h ago
The market favoured No at 91% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Kylian Mbappe 57% +9
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
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