Will Kylian Mbappé finish 4th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
The market favoured No at 91% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$6k
Total volume$10k
Liquidity$9k
Resolved1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 27 Oct, 14:43 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Oct, 23:03 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 9% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Kylian Mbappé is officially ranked fourth in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or list published by France Football or UEFA. If two or more players tie for fourth place, the winner is determined by alphabetical order of their names. Readers often mistake the date of the London ceremony for the deadline; the actual cutoff is November 2, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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