Le Pen Overtakes Bardella in France Far-Right Presidential Race

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 10 Nov 2026. News Feed published first, on 10 November at 05:00 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Marine Le Pen — the market puts it at 5%, with $1 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 18 Apr 2028. The market resolves to Yes if Marine Le Pen places second in the first round of the next French presidential election based on certified results. It resolves to No if she does not finish second. Readers often mistake the source of truth, assuming early polls or exit votes count instead of only the official certified results.
• Marine Le Pen — the market puts it at 90%, with $517 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 17 Apr 2028. The market resolves to Yes if Marine Le Pen is officially announced as a candidate who qualifies for the runoff of the 2027 French presidential election. It resolves to No if she does not reach that stage. Readers often mistake early polling leads or campaign announcements for official qualification, which does not count toward resolution.
• Marine Le Pen — the market puts it at 50%, with $14k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 30 May 2028. The outcome is Yes if Marine Le Pen wins the next French presidential election. The outcome is No if she does not win. Readers often mistake the date of the linked Senate news story for the resolution deadline.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.