ECB President Christine Lagarde to Step Down in February 2027 Hot: $68k traded on its market in 24 hours

The European Central Bank confirmed that Christine Lagarde will resign nine months early, with Antonio Costa noting the successor selection process is underway.

6 publishers · 8 articles · first seen 29 Oct 2026 · updated 20m ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

First reported by News Feed, 13 min ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first

The odds

How the odds moved · Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data

Time	Chance of yes
now	100%
29 Oct, 11:12 UTC	100%
29 Oct, 10:58 UTC	98%
29 Oct, 10:26 UTC	94%
28 Oct, 20:09 UTC	28%
28 Oct, 18:45 UTC	30%
28 Oct, 18:22 UTC	30%
28 Oct, 17:54 UTC	31%
28 Oct, 14:56 UTC	42%
28 Oct, 14:06 UTC	49%
28 Oct, 13:49 UTC	49%
28 Oct, 13:24 UTC	48%
28 Oct, 12:57 UTC	46%
28 Oct, 12:29 UTC	49%
28 Oct, 11:45 UTC	49%
28 Oct, 11:24 UTC	45%
28 Oct, 08:15 UTC	49%
28 Oct, 07:56 UTC	47%
28 Oct, 07:29 UTC	47%
28 Oct, 06:27 UTC	47%
28 Oct, 05:51 UTC	45%
28 Oct, 04:56 UTC	47%
28 Oct, 03:29 UTC	47%
28 Oct, 02:16 UTC	48%
28 Oct, 01:35 UTC	44%
28 Oct, 01:28 UTC	43%
27 Oct, 23:52 UTC	44%
27 Oct, 23:12 UTC	43%
27 Oct, 22:58 UTC	43%
27 Oct, 22:23 UTC	44%
27 Oct, 21:56 UTC	43%
27 Oct, 21:26 UTC	43%
27 Oct, 20:53 UTC	41%
27 Oct, 19:55 UTC	42%
27 Oct, 18:12 UTC	43%
27 Oct, 17:50 UTC	45%
27 Oct, 17:28 UTC	50%
27 Oct, 16:52 UTC	51%
27 Oct, 16:22 UTC	52%
27 Oct, 15:56 UTC	51%
27 Oct, 14:29 UTC	52%
27 Oct, 12:57 UTC	51%
27 Oct, 12:08 UTC	51%
27 Oct, 11:51 UTC	51%
27 Oct, 10:42 UTC	51%
27 Oct, 09:51 UTC	51%
27 Oct, 09:22 UTC	63%
27 Oct, 08:54 UTC	62%
27 Oct, 08:27 UTC	63%
27 Oct, 07:51 UTC	64%
27 Oct, 07:17 UTC	64%
27 Oct, 06:49 UTC	63%
27 Oct, 06:26 UTC	59%
27 Oct, 05:06 UTC	64%
27 Oct, 03:26 UTC	59%
27 Oct, 02:51 UTC	57%
27 Oct, 02:23 UTC	60%
27 Oct, 01:46 UTC	60%
27 Oct, 01:25 UTC	62%
27 Oct, 00:31 UTC	64%
27 Oct, 00:17 UTC	65%
26 Oct, 23:31 UTC	57%
26 Oct, 23:24 UTC	60%
26 Oct, 22:56 UTC	61%
26 Oct, 22:22 UTC	59%
26 Oct, 21:53 UTC	61%
26 Oct, 21:25 UTC	61%
26 Oct, 20:56 UTC	66%
26 Oct, 20:12 UTC	67%
26 Oct, 19:58 UTC	65%
26 Oct, 19:23 UTC	57%
26 Oct, 18:33 UTC	59%
26 Oct, 18:26 UTC	59%
26 Oct, 17:45 UTC	59%
26 Oct, 17:21 UTC	59%
26 Oct, 16:59 UTC	56%
26 Oct, 16:02 UTC	57%
26 Oct, 15:47 UTC	58%
26 Oct, 15:09 UTC	58%
26 Oct, 14:55 UTC	58%
26 Oct, 13:47 UTC	58%
26 Oct, 13:23 UTC	59%
26 Oct, 12:47 UTC	59%
26 Oct, 12:25 UTC	56%
26 Oct, 11:49 UTC	56%
26 Oct, 11:24 UTC	54%
26 Oct, 10:42 UTC	51%
26 Oct, 10:07 UTC	50%
26 Oct, 09:39 UTC	50%
26 Oct, 08:51 UTC	50%
26 Oct, 08:23 UTC	50%
26 Oct, 07:44 UTC	50%
26 Oct, 07:13 UTC	50%
26 Oct, 06:51 UTC	50%
26 Oct, 06:20 UTC	50%
26 Oct, 05:53 UTC	50%
26 Oct, 05:04 UTC	50%
26 Oct, 03:50 UTC	50%
26 Oct, 03:27 UTC	64%
26 Oct, 02:48 UTC	48%
26 Oct, 01:52 UTC	48%
26 Oct, 01:12 UTC	48%
25 Oct, 23:35 UTC	49%
25 Oct, 23:14 UTC	48%
25 Oct, 21:57 UTC	49%
25 Oct, 19:46 UTC	48%
25 Oct, 19:18 UTC	45%
25 Oct, 18:57 UTC	48%
25 Oct, 18:11 UTC	52%
25 Oct, 17:56 UTC	51%
25 Oct, 17:10 UTC	50%
25 Oct, 16:49 UTC	46%
25 Oct, 15:25 UTC	42%
25 Oct, 14:41 UTC	45%
25 Oct, 14:27 UTC	42%
25 Oct, 13:56 UTC	43%
25 Oct, 13:25 UTC	43%
25 Oct, 12:49 UTC	41%
25 Oct, 12:10 UTC	43%
25 Oct, 11:56 UTC	46%
25 Oct, 11:14 UTC	46%
25 Oct, 10:49 UTC	40%
25 Oct, 10:28 UTC	41%
25 Oct, 09:58 UTC	41%
25 Oct, 09:28 UTC	44%
25 Oct, 08:32 UTC	45%
25 Oct, 08:07 UTC	45%
25 Oct, 07:46 UTC	43%
25 Oct, 07:25 UTC	43%
25 Oct, 06:48 UTC	43%
25 Oct, 06:28 UTC	41%
25 Oct, 05:57 UTC	39%
25 Oct, 05:17 UTC	43%
25 Oct, 04:49 UTC	43%
25 Oct, 03:58 UTC	46%
25 Oct, 03:16 UTC	47%
25 Oct, 02:56 UTC	47%
25 Oct, 02:28 UTC	46%
25 Oct, 01:08 UTC	45%
25 Oct, 00:58 UTC	42%
25 Oct, 00:29 UTC	43%
24 Oct, 23:48 UTC	39%
24 Oct, 23:05 UTC	40%
24 Oct, 22:58 UTC	41%
24 Oct, 22:12 UTC	40%
24 Oct, 21:58 UTC	40%
24 Oct, 19:44 UTC	40%
24 Oct, 19:09 UTC	41%
24 Oct, 18:50 UTC	43%
24 Oct, 18:29 UTC	42%
24 Oct, 17:29 UTC	42%
24 Oct, 16:47 UTC	41%
24 Oct, 16:22 UTC	41%
24 Oct, 15:48 UTC	43%
24 Oct, 15:27 UTC	40%
24 Oct, 14:54 UTC	38%
24 Oct, 14:27 UTC	39%
24 Oct, 13:52 UTC	38%
24 Oct, 13:00 UTC	39%
24 Oct, 12:40 UTC	40%
24 Oct, 12:11 UTC	36%
24 Oct, 11:26 UTC	36%
24 Oct, 10:58 UTC	37%
24 Oct, 10:10 UTC	38%
24 Oct, 09:57 UTC	37%
24 Oct, 09:29 UTC	39%
24 Oct, 08:57 UTC	40%
24 Oct, 08:29 UTC	41%
24 Oct, 07:27 UTC	43%
24 Oct, 06:58 UTC	36%
24 Oct, 04:25 UTC	40%
24 Oct, 03:30 UTC	36%
24 Oct, 01:48 UTC	42%
23 Oct, 23:50 UTC	37%
23 Oct, 21:41 UTC	36%
23 Oct, 20:35 UTC	36%
23 Oct, 20:28 UTC	37%
23 Oct, 19:34 UTC	41%
23 Oct, 18:00 UTC	36%
23 Oct, 17:31 UTC	38%
23 Oct, 17:24 UTC	41%
23 Oct, 15:13 UTC	36%
23 Oct, 14:59 UTC	40%
23 Oct, 13:37 UTC	36%
23 Oct, 11:06 UTC	38%
23 Oct, 10:46 UTC	38%
23 Oct, 09:34 UTC	38%
23 Oct, 09:27 UTC	38%
23 Oct, 07:26 UTC	38%
23 Oct, 06:39 UTC	41%
23 Oct, 06:25 UTC	42%
23 Oct, 04:10 UTC	40%
23 Oct, 03:53 UTC	41%
23 Oct, 02:33 UTC	41%
23 Oct, 00:55 UTC	41%
23 Oct, 00:09 UTC	40%
22 Oct, 23:48 UTC	42%
22 Oct, 22:39 UTC	38%
22 Oct, 21:57 UTC	40%
22 Oct, 21:23 UTC	35%
22 Oct, 20:20 UTC	35%
22 Oct, 19:23 UTC	35%
22 Oct, 17:24 UTC	34%
22 Oct, 16:54 UTC	34%
22 Oct, 15:28 UTC	34%
22 Oct, 14:46 UTC	34%
22 Oct, 14:24 UTC	34%
22 Oct, 13:56 UTC	34%
22 Oct, 13:19 UTC	34%
22 Oct, 11:45 UTC	34%

The story so far

6 publishers have covered this in 8 articles since 29 Oct 2026. News Feed published first, on 29 October at 10:04 UTC; Bloomberg Markets followed 14 min later. The most recent article, from The Guardian Business, appeared on 29 October at 10:56 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: News Feed (major outlet), Bloomberg.com (major outlet), The Guardian Business (major outlet), News from Europe - Latest world headlines and daily news - France 24, Cointelegraph.com News, Deutsche Welle.

3 prediction markets price this story:

Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026? — the market puts it at 100%, with $34k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Christine Lagarde stops being ECB president at any point before December 31, 2026, including if she announces her resignation or removal early. It resolves to No if she remains in the role through that deadline.
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election? — the market puts it at 2%, with $68k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 19 Apr 2027. The outcome depends on whether Christine Lagarde wins the 2027 French presidential election according to official results from the French Ministry of the Interior. Readers often mistake the deadline for knowing the winner as the end of the election period, but the market resolves based on the final certified result, not just early projections or consensus reporting.
Christine Lagarde — the market puts it at 3%, with $3k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 30 May 2028. The outcome is Yes if Christine Lagarde wins the next French presidential election. The outcome is No if she does not win that specific election. Readers often mistake the linked story about her stepping down as ECB President for the resolution condition, but only the French presidential election result matters.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

29 Oct, 10:04News Feed Christine Lagarde to step down as ECB president in February28%
29 Oct, 10:18Bloomberg Markets Lagarde to Step Down as ECB President on Feb. 7 (Video)28%
29 Oct, 10:21News from Europe - Latest world headlines and daily news - France 24 ECB President Christine Lagarde to step down in February 2027, nine months before term ends28%
29 Oct, 10:28Bloomberg.com Lagarde to Leave ECB Early, Midterm Election Countdown, More94%▲66 points since the previous source
29 Oct, 10:29Cointelegraph.com News ECB President Christine Lagarde to step down in February 202794%
29 Oct, 10:33Deutsche Welle ECB head Christine Lagarde to step down in February94%
29 Oct, 10:33Deutsche Welle European Central Bank (ECB) head Christine Lagarde to step down in February, before her term ends94%
29 Oct, 10:56The Guardian Business Europe’s central bank chief Christine Lagarde to step down nine months early94%
NowCurrent odds100%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

Polymarket Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026? 100% +51 $34k 24hends 1 Jan 2027
Does the market have this right?

Wrong market?

What's wrong
Polymarket Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election? 2% +2 $68k 24hends 19 Apr 2027
Does the market have this right?

Wrong market?

What's wrong
Kalshi Christine Lagarde 3% +1 $3k 24hends 30 May 2028
Does the market have this right?

Wrong market?

What's wrong

Have your say

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

Email me when the odds move

In this story

Christine Lagarde
European Central Bank
Antonio Costa
European Council

Embed this story

Paste this into any web page to show the live odds, with a link back here.

<iframe src="https://newsmarkets.org/embed/story/lagarde-to-step-down-as-ecb-president-on-feb-7-86460" width="100%" height="420" style="border:0;max-width:640px" loading="lazy" title="ECB President Christine Lagarde to Step Down in February 2027 · NewsMarkets"></iframe>