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Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?

Resolved: Yes 5d ago

The market favoured No at 53% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right

Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$38k
Total volume$72k
Liquidity$0
Resolved1 Jan 2027

Why it moved: +66 points at 10:26 UTC, after News from Europe - Latest world headlines and daily news - France 24: ECB President Christine Lagarde to step down in February 2027, nine months before term ends — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?
0%50%100%100%22 Oct, 13:19 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now100%
29 Oct, 12:52 UTC100%
29 Oct, 12:03 UTC100%
29 Oct, 11:56 UTC100%
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29 Oct, 10:58 UTC98%
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22 Oct, 13:19 UTC34%

What counts

The market resolves to Yes if Christine Lagarde stops being ECB president at any point before December 31, 2026, including if she announces her resignation or removal early. It resolves to No if she remains in the role through that deadline.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 100%
  • No 0%

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