Jan. 6 Pardonees Sue US for Compensation After Trump Clemency

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 22 Oct 2026. Bloomberg.com published first, on 22 October at 10:00 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• 3 to 9 — the market puts it at 37%, with $59 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if the President pardons, commutes a sentence for, or grants a reprieve to between three and nine people in October 2026. It resolves to No if this specific range of actions does not occur during that month. Readers often mistake the deadline, thinking any clemency action counts regardless of the date.
• Donald Trump — the market puts it at 57%, with $280 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 21 Jan 2029. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during his second term and before January 21, 2029. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about pardoning diesel mechanics as the triggering event, but only a formal presidential action counts.
• 25 to 49 — resolved “No” on 22 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if the President pardons, commutes a sentence for, or grants a reprieve to between 25 and 49 people after the question is issued and before January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if this specific range of actions does not occur within that timeframe.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.