3 to 9
Why it moved: −13 points at 10:09 UTC, after Bloomberg.com: Capitol Rioters Pardoned by Trump for Police Assaults Want US Payouts — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 37% |
| 22 Oct, 15:50 UTC | 37% |
| 22 Oct, 13:42 UTC | 38% |
| 22 Oct, 10:09 UTC | 39% |
| 21 Oct, 09:01 UTC | 52% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the President pardons, commutes a sentence for, or grants a reprieve to between three and nine people in October 2026. It resolves to No if this specific range of actions does not occur during that month. Readers often mistake the deadline, thinking any clemency action counts regardless of the date.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 37%
- No 63%