25 to 49
The market favoured No at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 2%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$6k
Liquidity$6k
Resolved22 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 10:09 UTC | 2% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the President pardons, commutes a sentence for, or grants a reprieve to between 25 and 49 people after the question is issued and before January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if this specific range of actions does not occur within that timeframe.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%