Intelligence Memo Warns Iran Plotting to Kill Americans in Middle East Hot: $90k traded on its market in 24 hours
A US intelligence memo warns that plans against American citizens have reached advanced stages amid rising regional tensions.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 18% |
| 23 Oct, 23:36 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Oct, 22:42 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Oct, 17:38 UTC | 18% |
| 22 Oct, 17:02 UTC | 17% |
| 22 Oct, 16:47 UTC | 16% |
| 22 Oct, 16:19 UTC | 16% |
| 22 Oct, 13:04 UTC | 17% |
| 22 Oct, 12:36 UTC | 16% |
| 22 Oct, 06:00 UTC | 16% |
| 21 Oct, 20:57 UTC | 17% |
| 21 Oct, 19:46 UTC | 17% |
| 21 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 16% |
| 21 Oct, 01:03 UTC | 16% |
| 20 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 14% |
| 20 Oct, 19:14 UTC | 16% |
| 20 Oct, 15:30 UTC | 14% |
| 20 Oct, 15:23 UTC | 16% |
| 20 Oct, 14:47 UTC | 14% |
| 18 Oct, 17:45 UTC | 15% |
| 18 Oct, 11:26 UTC | 15% |
| 18 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 15% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 24 Oct 2026. ft.com published first, on 24 October at 02:47 UTC; Just In News followed 38 min later. The most recent article, from Just In News, appeared on 24 October at 03:24 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: ft.com (major outlet), Just In News (major outlet).
One prediction market prices this story:
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? — the market puts it at 18%, with $90k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The Yes outcome occurs if the United States starts a military offensive to control any part of Iran by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The No outcome applies if this specific action does not happen within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of 2027 or assume diplomatic talks count as an invasion.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Polymarket Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? 18% +1
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