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Hackers Leak Hundreds of Thousands of AfD Party Emails in Cyberattack

Thousands of internal documents from Germany's far-right AfD party have been released following a cyberattack, prompting an official inquiry.

2 publishers · 3 articles · first seen 19 Oct 2026 · updated 3h ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

The odds

How the odds moved · Before Jan 1, 2027
0%50%100%55%14 Oct, 04:20 UTCnowDeutsche Welle: Germany news: Hackers release AfD party emails · 20 Oct, 15:41 UTCHacker News: AfD Leak: What 421,179 Hacked Emails Show about the German Far Right · 20 Oct, 09:35 UTCHacker News: Germany's far-right AfD: half a million internal documents leaked · 19 Oct, 20:31 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now55%
14 Oct, 04:20 UTC55%

The story so far

2 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 19 Oct 2026. Hacker News published first, on 19 October at 20:31 UTC; Deutsche Welle followed 19h 10m later. The most recent article, from Deutsche Welle, appeared on 20 October at 15:41 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Hacker News, Deutsche Welle.

2 prediction markets price this story:

  • Before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 55%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the Alternative fuer Deutschland joins a German state government between now and January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if this does not happen within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked headline as sufficient proof, but only an official entry into a state government counts toward resolution.
  • AfD — the market puts it at 83%, closing 25 Mar 2030. The market resolves to Yes if the Alternative for Germany party wins the next German federal election. It resolves to No if any other party wins that election. Readers often mistake this for a prediction of which party will win the next regional or European election, but only the Bundestag vote counts.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Before Jan 1, 2027 at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

  1. Hacker NewsGermany's far-right AfD: half a million internal documents leaked55%
  2. Hacker NewsAfD Leak: What 421,179 Hacked Emails Show about the German Far Right55%
  3. Deutsche WelleGermany news: Hackers release AfD party emails55%
  4. Current odds55%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. Germany news: Hackers release AfD party emails Deutsche Welle
  2. AfD Leak: What 421,179 Hacked Emails Show about the German Far Right Hacker News
  3. Germany's far-right AfD: half a million internal documents leaked Hacker News

Markets on this story

  • Kalshi Before Jan 1, 2027 55% $0 24hends 1 Jan 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi AfD 83% $0 24hends 25 Mar 2030

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

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In this story

  • AfD
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