AfD
Implied probability 81%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$13k
Liquidity$13k
Resolves25 Mar 2030
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 81% |
| 5 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 81% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Alternative for Germany party wins the next German federal election. It resolves to No if any other party wins that election. Readers often mistake this for a prediction of which party will win the next regional or European election, but only the Bundestag vote counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 81%
- No 19%