Former Kansas Gov. Mike Hayden Endorses Democrat Adam Hamilton for Senate

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 2 Oct 2026. The Hill published first, on 2 October at 17:52 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Adam Hamilton — the market puts it at 35%, with $39k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if a Democrat takes office as a U.S. Senator from Kansas starting in 2027. It resolves to No if any other candidate wins that seat or if the position remains vacant. Readers often mistake the election date for the resolution deadline, but the outcome depends on who is actually sworn in.
• Ty Masterson and Roger Marshall win — the market puts it at 49%, with $258 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if both the Kansas Governor and Senate races are won by Republicans. It resolves to No if either race is won by a Democrat or another candidate. Readers often mistake this for a prediction about specific candidates rather than party affiliation.
• Marshall, 9+ pts — the market puts it at 16%, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the Republican candidate wins the 2026 Kansas Senate election by a margin of at least 9 percentage points. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the endorsement in the linked story for a prediction of the final vote margin.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.