Former Alabama Rep. Jerry Carl Wins Return to House
Jerry Carl defeats Democrat Clyde Jones in Alabama's open 1st Congressional District, reclaiming the seat previously held by Barry Moore.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 12% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 12% |
| 3 Nov, 00:46 UTC | 21% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 4 Nov 2026. The Hill published first, on 4 November at 01:06 UTC.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Carl, 33+ pts — the market puts it at 12%, with $6 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The outcome is Yes if the Republican Party wins Alabama’s 1st District race by a margin of at least 33 percentage points in the 2026 election. The outcome is No if that specific margin is not reached. Readers often mistake the linked story about Jerry Carl for the resolution criteria, but the market depends solely on the final vote margin in the 2026 election.
- 2 — resolved “Yes” on 4 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Democrats win two seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Alabama. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked story about Jerry Carl’s past victory as relevant to this future election outcome.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Carl, 33+ pts 12% −9
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved 2 Yes 2h ago
The market favoured No at 58% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Jerry Carl
- Clyde Jones
- Barry Moore
- Alabama