2
The market favoured No at 58% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Final probability 98%
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$9k
Liquidity$9k
Resolved3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 06:28 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 04:10 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 01:20 UTC | 52% |
| 3 Nov, 00:46 UTC | 41% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Democrats win two seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Alabama. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked story about Jerry Carl’s past victory as relevant to this future election outcome.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 98%
- No 2%