Carl, 33+ pts
Implied probability 12%−9
24-hour volume$6
Total volume$4k
Liquidity$4k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 12% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 12% |
| 3 Nov, 00:46 UTC | 21% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if the Republican Party wins Alabama’s 1st District race by a margin of at least 33 percentage points in the 2026 election. The outcome is No if that specific margin is not reached. Readers often mistake the linked story about Jerry Carl for the resolution criteria, but the market depends solely on the final vote margin in the 2026 election.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 12%
- No 88%