Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula to face off in Brazil's presidential runoff Hot: Odds moved 59 points in 24 hours

The story so far

2 publishers have covered this in 21 articles since 29 Sept 2026. France 24 - Noticias y actualidad internacional en vivo published first, on 29 September at 22:45 UTC; Bloomberg Markets followed 130h 40m later. The most recent article, from Bloomberg Markets, appeared on 5 October at 09:25 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Bloomberg Markets (major outlet), France 24 - Noticias y actualidad internacional en vivo.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• At least 39% — the market puts it at 98%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 4 Oct 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Flávio Bolsonaro receives between 39% and 100% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. The outcome depends on the certified percentage from official election results, not early polls or projections. Readers often mistake the deadline for when votes are cast rather than when results are officially certified.
• Flávio Bolsonaro — the market puts it at 1%, with $15k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 4 Oct 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Flávio Bolsonaro places second in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election based on certified results. It resolves to No if he does not finish second. Readers often mistake the deadline for the debate mentioned in the linked story, but the actual trigger is the official election certification.
• Flávio Bolsonaro — the market puts it at 3%, with $165 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 4 Oct 2027. The outcome is Yes if Flávio Bolsonaro ranks third in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election based on certified results. The outcome is No if he does not finish third or if the election does not occur as scheduled. Readers often mistake the source of truth, assuming unofficial polls determine the result instead of the official certified election data.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.