Before Mar 1, 2027
Implied probability 7%−1
24-hour volume$140
Total volume$7k
Liquidity$7k
Resolves1 Mar 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 7% |
| 6 Nov, 05:25 UTC | 7% |
| 4 Nov, 21:10 UTC | 8% |
| 31 Oct, 17:10 UTC | 9% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Jair Bolsonaro receives a pardon, clemency, or equivalent official act of legal forgiveness from a competent authority before March 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked story about Lula’s victory as the resolution trigger, but only an official act of forgiveness for Bolsonaro counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 7%
- No 93%