Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?
Implied probability 0%
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$87k
Liquidity$39k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 6 Nov, 09:23 UTC | 0% |
| 6 Nov, 04:56 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 15:25 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 20:06 UTC | 0% |
| 3 Nov, 05:32 UTC | 0% |
| 31 Oct, 23:04 UTC | 0% |
| 31 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 0% |
| 31 Oct, 04:21 UTC | 0% |
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What counts
The Yes outcome requires Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to permanently leave his office before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Temporary removals, caretaker roles, or mere resignation announcements do not count toward this result. Readers often mistake the deadline as the end of 2027, but the market resolves based on events occurring before the end of 2026.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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