Lula, Eizenkot, Democrats
Why it moved: −17 points at 20:53 UTC, after The Hill: Flávio Bolsonaro flees Brazil for US after losing election: Reports — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 19% |
| 28 Oct, 01:35 UTC | 19% |
| 28 Oct, 00:53 UTC | 7% |
| 28 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 24% |
| 27 Oct, 21:19 UTC | 25% |
| 27 Oct, 20:53 UTC | 27% |
| 27 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 44% |
| 27 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 45% |
| 27 Oct, 13:04 UTC | 47% |
| 27 Oct, 01:53 UTC | 48% |
| 27 Oct, 01:25 UTC | 47% |
| 26 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 48% |
| 26 Oct, 18:48 UTC | 50% |
| 26 Oct, 18:11 UTC | 49% |
| 25 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 0% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes only if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva serves as Brazil President, Gadi Eizenkot serves as Israel Prime Minister, and Democrats control the U.S. Senate. The outcome is No if any of these three conditions fail. Readers often mistake the linked news headline about Lula for sufficient proof, but they must verify the status of both the Israeli Prime Minister and the U.S. Senate.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 19%
- No 81%