Ex-congressman David Rivera sentenced to 10 years for secret Venezuela lobbying
Former Florida congressman David Rivera receives a decade in prison for secretly lobbying on behalf of the Venezuelan government while claiming he sought Maduro's removal.
First reported by Washington Post, 1h 10m ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 2 Oct, 19:50 UTC | 2% |
| 1 Oct, 18:41 UTC | 1% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Marco Rubio respond.
The story so far
3 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 2 Oct 2026. Washington Post published first, on 2 October at 19:38 UTC; Fortune followed 1h 11m later. The most recent article, from The Hill, appeared on 2 October at 21:25 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Washington Post (major outlet), The Hill (major outlet), Fortune.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Marco Rubio — the market puts it at 2%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Marco Rubio officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked story about David Rivera as relevant to this outcome.
- Venezuela — the market puts it at 15%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if the US Secretary of State visits Venezuela before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the linked story about Milei for the actual resolution condition.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Marco Rubio at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Washington PostEx-congressman and Rubio ally gets 10 years for secret Venezuela lobbying1%
- Fortune‘He sold his anti-communism to communists’: Former GOP Rep. David Rivera gets 10 years in prison for $50 million lobbying ‘from the Maduro regime’2%▲1 points since the previous source
- The HillEx-GOP lawmaker sentenced to 10 years in prison2%
- Current odds2%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Ex-GOP lawmaker sentenced to 10 years in prison The Hill ·
- Ex-congressman and Rubio ally gets 10 years for secret Venezuela lobbying Washington Post ·
- ‘He sold his anti-communism to communists’: Former GOP Rep. David Rivera gets 10 years in prison for $50 million lobbying ‘from the Maduro regime’ Fortune
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Marco Rubio 2% +1
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Wrong market?
- Kalshi Venezuela 15%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- David Rivera
- Nicolás Maduro
- Venezuela