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Venezuela

Implied probability 15%−9
24-hour volume$10
Total volume$8k
Liquidity$8k
Resolves1 Jan 2027

Why it moved: −9 points at 23:08 UTC, after France 24 - Noticias y actualidad internacional en vivo: Informe desde Washington: Trump resalta relación con Xi tras reunión en la Casa Blanca — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · Venezuela
0%50%100%15%22 Sept, 19:26 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now15%
24 Sept, 23:08 UTC15%
22 Sept, 19:26 UTC24%

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What counts

The outcome is Yes if the US Secretary of State visits Venezuela before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the linked story about Milei for the actual resolution condition.

Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 15%
  • No 85%

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