Cuba Says It Will Outlast Trump's Pressure Campaign

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 29 Oct 2026. The New York Times published first, on 29 October at 20:55 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Cuba — the market puts it at 6%, with $3 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump physically enters Cuba between now and January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if he does not make such a visit within that timeframe. Readers often mistake general policy statements or diplomatic meetings for actual physical presence in the country.
• Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? — the market puts it at 6%, with $332 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the U.S. starts a military offensive to control Cuban land by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if this does not happen within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the year without checking the specific time or confuse political pressure with actual military invasion.
• Before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 18%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the United States announces a new free trade agreement, multilateral trade agreement, trade framework, or economic cooperation arrangement with Cuba before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a diplomatic walkout as the triggering event, but only an official US announcement of a qualifying economic arrangement counts.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.