Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Implied probability 8%−1
24-hour volume$7k
Total volume$3.6M
Liquidity$88k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 8% |
| 16 Oct, 20:41 UTC | 8% |
| 16 Oct, 20:02 UTC | 7% |
| 16 Oct, 17:01 UTC | 8% |
| 16 Oct, 12:12 UTC | 9% |
| 16 Oct, 11:30 UTC | 9% |
| 16 Oct, 10:28 UTC | 9% |
| 16 Oct, 07:24 UTC | 10% |
| 16 Oct, 05:48 UTC | 10% |
| 15 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 7% |
| 14 Oct, 18:34 UTC | 8% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the U.S. starts a military offensive to control Cuban land by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if this does not happen within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the year without checking the specific time or confuse political pressure with actual military invasion.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 8%
- No 93%
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