Before Jan 1, 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 18% |
| 25 Sept, 09:17 UTC | 18% |
| 24 Sept, 09:03 UTC | 16% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the United States announces a new free trade agreement, multilateral trade agreement, trade framework, or economic cooperation arrangement with Cuba before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a diplomatic walkout as the triggering event, but only an official US announcement of a qualifying economic arrangement counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 18%
- No 82%