Appeals Court Backs Finding Trump Colluded With IRS, Treasury
An appeals court upheld a lower court's determination that President Trump colluded with the Justice Department regarding a dismissed lawsuit against the IRS and Treasury.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 4 more published before price tracking began
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 3 Oct, 19:09 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Sept, 04:36 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Sept, 01:37 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 01:05 UTC | 7% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch At least 500 billion respond.
The story so far
15 publishers have covered this in 31 articles since 21 Sept 2026. Inside Climate News published first, on 21 September at 22:48 UTC; The Guardian US followed 22h 48m later. The most recent article, from Roll Call, appeared on 3 October at 00:35 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Guardian US (major outlet), The New York Times (major outlet), CBS News Politics (major outlet), The Hill (major outlet), Washington Post (major outlet), NPR Politics (major outlet), Bloomberg Markets (major outlet), Inside Climate News, Mother Jones, STAT, Fox News Politics, Times of India and 3 more, all listed under Sources below.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- At least 500 billion — the market puts it at 1%, closing 31 Mar 2029. The market resolves to Yes if government spending drops by at least $500 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any single quarter through Q4 2028. It resolves to No if that specific threshold is never met during the period. Readers often mistake this for a total cumulative drop rather than a quarterly measurement.
- At least 250 billion — the market puts it at 3%, closing 31 Mar 2027. The market resolves to Yes if total government spending drops by at least $250 billion between October 1, 2024, and September 30, 2026. It resolves to No if the decrease falls short of that threshold or if spending increases during this period. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the calendar year rather than the specific three-year window defined in the rules.
- $40 trillion — the market puts it at 100%, closing 31 Mar 2029. The market resolves to Yes if the U.S. federal debt reaches $40 trillion during any quarter from Q4 2024 through Q4 2028. It resolves to No if that threshold is not met within this specific timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a single fund cancellation for the total national debt, but only the aggregate federal debt level matters.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on At least 500 billion at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Inside Climate NewsFederal Judge Rules Against Trump Administration Over Canceled Clean Energy Grants—
- The Guardian USCalifornia and New York sue over Trump push to halt wind energy projects—
- Mother JonesTrump-Appointed Judge Smacks Down EPA’s Termination of Clean Energy Grants—
- The New York TimesA Second Judge Strikes Down New York’s Climate ‘Superfund’ Law—
- The Guardian USTrump cancels nearly $1bn in funding approved by Congress7%
- STATTrump administration uses rare authority to claw back nearly $1B in spending approved by Congress7%
- CBS News PoliticsTrump cancels nearly $1 billion in spending, a move some lawmakers called illegal4%▼3 points since the previous source
- The HillTrump rescinds nearly $1B in federal funding, bypassing congressional approval4%
- Fox News PoliticsTrump revives rare budget maneuver to rescind $810M in congressionally approved funds2%▼2 points since the previous source
- Washington PostLawmakers slam Trump’s move to cancel $810M in funding approved by Congress2%
Show 21 later sources
- NPR PoliticsPolitics chat: Trump vs the media; rolling back health and education spending2%
- Times of IndiaJudge orders revival of $7B Solar for All program, says EPA overstepped2%
- NPR PoliticsWhat to know about the $810 million in spending canceled by President Trump2%
- Roll CallWhite House cancels health, education funds approved by Congress2%
- STATTrump uses ‘contested’ power to cut more funding to HHS2%
- MedPageToday.com - medical news for physiciansTrump Uses Rare Authority to Cancel Nearly $1B in HHS Programs Approved by Congress2%
- Roll CallPower of the purse challenged2%
- Roll CallAppropriators seek ways to curb Trump’s spending cancellations2%
- The HillGOP lawmakers challenge Trump’s nearly $1B funding clawback2%
- The HillGAO reasserts pocket rescissions' illegality after Trump uses tactic to cancel nearly $1B2%
- Bloomberg MarketsTrump Sued Over Move to Claw Back Federal Funds Set to Expire2%
- Roll CallTrump’s funding cancellation violates budget law, GAO says2%
- The HillUnspent healthcare funding faces do-or-die cliff2%
- The Guardian USTop Trump figures push to direct human rights funding to rightwing causes2%
- Fortune‘It’s like psychological warfare’ Trump moves to end $4 billion ‘Housing First’ policy that funded 6,500 projects to eliminate homelessness2%
- The Guardian USSeth Meyers on Trump canceling $1bn in federal funds: ‘Is he adding a waterslide to the reflecting pool?’2%
- The HillAppeals court backs finding Trump colluded with IRS, Treasury2%
- Roll CallHousing groups challenge Trump funding clawback2%
- Washington Post BusinessDemocrats fail to stop Trump from canceling $810M in funds approved by Congress2%
- Washington PostTrump defies Democrats, diverts aid for Europe to Latin America instead2%
- Roll CallCourt challenges mount over Trump’s funding clawback2%
- Current odds1%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Trump defies Democrats, diverts aid for Europe to Latin America instead Washington Post ·
- Democrats fail to stop Trump from canceling $810M in funds approved by Congress Washington Post Business ·
- Appeals court backs finding Trump colluded with IRS, Treasury The Hill ·
- Seth Meyers on Trump canceling $1bn in federal funds: ‘Is he adding a waterslide to the reflecting pool?’ The Guardian US ·
- Top Trump figures push to direct human rights funding to rightwing causes The Guardian US ·
- Unspent healthcare funding faces do-or-die cliff The Hill ·
Show 25 more sources
- Trump Sued Over Move to Claw Back Federal Funds Set to Expire Bloomberg Markets ·
- GAO reasserts pocket rescissions' illegality after Trump uses tactic to cancel nearly $1B The Hill ·
- GOP lawmakers challenge Trump’s nearly $1B funding clawback The Hill ·
- What to know about the $810 million in spending canceled by President Trump NPR Politics ·
- Politics chat: Trump vs the media; rolling back health and education spending NPR Politics ·
- Lawmakers slam Trump’s move to cancel $810M in funding approved by Congress Washington Post ·
- Trump rescinds nearly $1B in federal funding, bypassing congressional approval The Hill ·
- Trump cancels nearly $1 billion in spending, a move some lawmakers called illegal CBS News Politics ·
- Trump cancels nearly $1bn in funding approved by Congress The Guardian US ·
- A Second Judge Strikes Down New York’s Climate ‘Superfund’ Law The New York Times ·
- California and New York sue over Trump push to halt wind energy projects The Guardian US ·
- Court challenges mount over Trump’s funding clawback Roll Call
- Housing groups challenge Trump funding clawback Roll Call
- ‘It’s like psychological warfare’ Trump moves to end $4 billion ‘Housing First’ policy that funded 6,500 projects to eliminate homelessness Fortune
- Trump’s funding cancellation violates budget law, GAO says Roll Call
- Appropriators seek ways to curb Trump’s spending cancellations Roll Call
- Power of the purse challenged Roll Call
- Trump Uses Rare Authority to Cancel Nearly $1B in HHS Programs Approved by Congress MedPageToday.com - medical news for physicians
- Trump uses ‘contested’ power to cut more funding to HHS STAT
- White House cancels health, education funds approved by Congress Roll Call
- Judge orders revival of $7B Solar for All program, says EPA overstepped Times of India
- Trump revives rare budget maneuver to rescind $810M in congressionally approved funds Fox News Politics
- Trump administration uses rare authority to claw back nearly $1B in spending approved by Congress STAT
- Trump-Appointed Judge Smacks Down EPA’s Termination of Clean Energy Grants Mother Jones
- Federal Judge Rules Against Trump Administration Over Canceled Clean Energy Grants Inside Climate News
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi At least 500 billion 1%
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- Kalshi At least 250 billion 3%
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- Kalshi $40 trillion 100%
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In this story
- Donald Trump
- IRS
- Treasury
- GAO
- Democrats