At least 500 billion
Implied probability 2%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$12k
Liquidity$12k
Resolves31 Mar 2029
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 26 Sept, 04:36 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Sept, 01:37 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 01:05 UTC | 7% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if government spending drops by at least $500 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any single quarter through Q4 2028. It resolves to No if that specific threshold is never met during the period. Readers often mistake this for a total cumulative drop rather than a quarterly measurement.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%