$40 trillion
Implied probability 100%
24-hour volume$100
Total volume$61k
Liquidity$61k
Resolves31 Mar 2029
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 29 Sept, 22:30 UTC | 100% |
| 28 Sept, 22:10 UTC | 100% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the U.S. federal debt reaches $40 trillion during any quarter from Q4 2024 through Q4 2028. It resolves to No if that threshold is not met within this specific timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a single fund cancellation for the total national debt, but only the aggregate federal debt level matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%