At least 250 billion
Implied probability 3%−3
24-hour volume$8
Total volume$106k
Liquidity$106k
Resolves31 Mar 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 2 Oct, 01:59 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 22:21 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Sept, 10:08 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 20:28 UTC | 6% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if total government spending drops by at least $250 billion between October 1, 2024, and September 30, 2026. It resolves to No if the decrease falls short of that threshold or if spending increases during this period. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the calendar year rather than the specific three-year window defined in the rules.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%