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Bipartisan Lawmakers Introduce Bill For Federal Film And TV Tax Credit Hot: Odds moved 21 points in 24 hours

Legislation proposes a 20-30% federal tax incentive for domestic productions to compete with international subsidies.

4 publishers · 6 articles · first seen 23 Sept 2026 · updated 9m ago

Markets on this story

  • Kalshi Yes 37% +21 $6k 24hends 1 Jan 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

How the odds moved · Yes
0%50%100%37%23 Sept, 18:29 UTCnowThe Hill: Bipartisan lawmakers announce 20-30 percent US film incentive package · 24 Sept, 19:16 UTCThe Hollywood Reporter: Federal Film and TV Tax Credit Hits Congress: Bipartisan Group Introduces Hollywood Bill · 24 Sept, 18:24 UTCVariety: Lawmakers Unveil 20%-30% U.S. Film Incentive in Bid to Restore Hollywood Production · 24 Sept, 17:45 UTCVariety: The Federal Film Incentive Bill: What’s In and What’s Out · 24 Sept, 17:45 UTCDeadline: Lawmakers Introduce Bill For 20% Federal Film & TV Incentive · 24 Sept, 18:31 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 1 more published before price tracking began

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now37%
24 Sept, 19:24 UTC47%
23 Sept, 18:29 UTC16%

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How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Yes at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

  1. DeadlineLawmakers Expected To Introduce Bill This Week For Federal Film And TV Incentive—
  2. VarietyLawmakers Unveil 20%-30% U.S. Film Incentive in Bid to Restore Hollywood Production16%
  3. VarietyThe Federal Film Incentive Bill: What’s In and What’s Out16%
  4. The Hollywood ReporterFederal Film and TV Tax Credit Hits Congress: Bipartisan Group Introduces Hollywood Bill16%
  5. DeadlineLawmakers Introduce Bill For 20% Federal Film & TV Incentive16%
  6. The HillBipartisan lawmakers announce 20-30 percent US film incentive package16%
  7. Current odds37%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. Bipartisan lawmakers announce 20-30 percent US film incentive package The Hill ·
  2. Federal Film and TV Tax Credit Hits Congress: Bipartisan Group Introduces Hollywood Bill The Hollywood Reporter ·
  3. Lawmakers Unveil 20%-30% U.S. Film Incentive in Bid to Restore Hollywood Production Variety ·
  4. The Federal Film Incentive Bill: What’s In and What’s Out Variety ·
  5. Lawmakers Introduce Bill For 20% Federal Film & TV Incentive Deadline
  6. Lawmakers Expected To Introduce Bill This Week For Federal Film And TV Incentive Deadline

In this story