Bank of Japan Holds Rates as Tokyo Inflation Hits Target

The story so far

3 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 30 Oct 2026. Latest articles published first, on 30 October at 01:01 UTC; News Feed followed 2h 23m later. The most recent article, from Bloomberg Markets, appeared on 30 October at 03:32 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: News Feed (major outlet), Bloomberg Markets (major outlet), Latest articles.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? — the market puts it at 77%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 18 Dec 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if the Bank of Japan raises the uncollateralized overnight call rate by exactly 25 basis points during its December 17-18, 2026 meeting. The No outcome applies if the rate remains unchanged or changes by any other amount.
• Hike 25bps — the market puts it at 76%, with $662 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 18 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if the Bank of Japan increases interest rates by exactly 25 basis points during its monetary policy meeting in December 2026. It resolves to No if the bank takes any other action or fails to act at that specific time. Readers often mistake the headline date for the resolution deadline, but only the official decision made in December 2026 counts.
• Above -1.0% of GDP — the market puts it at 23%, closing 20 Apr 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Japan's general government net lending or borrowing balance for 2026 exceeds -1.0% of GDP. It resolves to No if that balance falls at or below -1.0% of GDP. Readers often mistake the resolution source, which is official Japanese government fiscal data, not political statements about the yen.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.