Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Why it moved: −3 points at 03:54 UTC, after Bloomberg Markets: BOJ Inflation Target Signal Supports Yen Gains, Strategists Say — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 78% |
| 30 Oct, 06:14 UTC | 78% |
| 30 Oct, 05:56 UTC | 77% |
| 30 Oct, 05:28 UTC | 77% |
| 30 Oct, 04:43 UTC | 77% |
| 30 Oct, 04:29 UTC | 77% |
| 30 Oct, 03:54 UTC | 77% |
| 29 Oct, 03:47 UTC | 81% |
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if the Bank of Japan raises the uncollateralized overnight call rate by exactly 25 basis points during its December 17-18, 2026 meeting. The No outcome applies if the rate remains unchanged or changes by any other amount.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 78%
- No 22%
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