Above -1.0% of GDP
Implied probability 23%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$5k
Liquidity$5k
Resolves20 Apr 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 23% |
| 20 Oct, 23:52 UTC | 23% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Japan's general government net lending or borrowing balance for 2026 exceeds -1.0% of GDP. It resolves to No if that balance falls at or below -1.0% of GDP. Readers often mistake the resolution source, which is official Japanese government fiscal data, not political statements about the yen.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 23%
- No 77%