Apple Unveils Biggest-Ever Device Revamp as Stocks Close Down
The company launches a major hardware update while its shares decline in trading.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
All 1 source published before price tracking began
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 16% |
| 30 Sept, 16:59 UTC | 16% |
| 30 Sept, 16:26 UTC | 16% |
| 30 Sept, 15:39 UTC | 16% |
| 30 Sept, 15:23 UTC | 16% |
| 30 Sept, 14:50 UTC | 15% |
| 30 Sept, 14:15 UTC | 15% |
| 30 Sept, 13:48 UTC | 14% |
| 30 Sept, 03:13 UTC | 15% |
| 29 Sept, 23:00 UTC | 15% |
| 29 Sept, 20:42 UTC | 15% |
| 29 Sept, 20:26 UTC | 15% |
| 29 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 15% |
| 29 Sept, 19:25 UTC | 15% |
| 29 Sept, 18:05 UTC | 15% |
| 29 Sept, 17:57 UTC | 15% |
| 29 Sept, 17:25 UTC | 15% |
| 29 Sept, 16:54 UTC | 15% |
| 29 Sept, 14:53 UTC | 15% |
| 29 Sept, 14:15 UTC | 16% |
| 29 Sept, 13:58 UTC | 15% |
| 29 Sept, 09:30 UTC | 16% |
| 29 Sept, 07:40 UTC | 16% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 16% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 16% |
| 28 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 16% |
| 28 Sept, 14:06 UTC | 16% |
| 27 Sept, 13:02 UTC | 18% |
| 27 Sept, 06:10 UTC | 17% |
| 27 Sept, 05:57 UTC | 17% |
| 27 Sept, 05:23 UTC | 17% |
| 27 Sept, 04:59 UTC | 17% |
| 26 Sept, 23:00 UTC | 17% |
| 26 Sept, 20:44 UTC | 17% |
| 26 Sept, 15:23 UTC | 17% |
| 26 Sept, 09:24 UTC | 17% |
| 26 Sept, 06:00 UTC | 17% |
| 26 Sept, 03:46 UTC | 17% |
| 26 Sept, 01:37 UTC | 17% |
| 25 Sept, 21:07 UTC | 17% |
| 25 Sept, 20:39 UTC | 17% |
| 25 Sept, 18:00 UTC | 17% |
| 25 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 17% |
| 25 Sept, 16:44 UTC | 17% |
| 25 Sept, 15:50 UTC | 17% |
| 24 Sept, 23:39 UTC | 16% |
| 24 Sept, 21:25 UTC | 16% |
| 24 Sept, 20:52 UTC | 16% |
| 24 Sept, 17:27 UTC | 16% |
| 24 Sept, 15:45 UTC | 16% |
| 24 Sept, 15:25 UTC | 16% |
| 24 Sept, 14:18 UTC | 16% |
| 24 Sept, 13:17 UTC | 16% |
| 24 Sept, 12:49 UTC | 16% |
| 24 Sept, 12:16 UTC | 16% |
| 24 Sept, 11:09 UTC | 16% |
| 24 Sept, 10:12 UTC | 16% |
| 24 Sept, 09:00 UTC | 16% |
| 24 Sept, 07:54 UTC | 15% |
| 24 Sept, 06:22 UTC | 15% |
| 24 Sept, 05:54 UTC | 15% |
| 23 Sept, 22:34 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 22:27 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 21:43 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 21:23 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 20:34 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 20:13 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 19:21 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 18:47 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 17:45 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 17:11 UTC | 15% |
| 23 Sept, 16:42 UTC | 15% |
| 23 Sept, 16:11 UTC | 15% |
| 23 Sept, 15:24 UTC | 15% |
| 23 Sept, 13:38 UTC | 15% |
| 23 Sept, 13:28 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 12:54 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 10:42 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 01:46 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 00:15 UTC | 15% |
| 22 Sept, 15:55 UTC | 15% |
| 22 Sept, 14:50 UTC | 15% |
| 22 Sept, 13:57 UTC | 15% |
| 22 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 15% |
| 22 Sept, 11:50 UTC | 15% |
| 22 Sept, 10:34 UTC | 15% |
| 22 Sept, 09:52 UTC | 15% |
| 22 Sept, 07:17 UTC | 15% |
| 22 Sept, 00:53 UTC | 15% |
| 21 Sept, 22:01 UTC | 15% |
| 21 Sept, 21:33 UTC | 15% |
| 21 Sept, 21:23 UTC | 15% |
| 21 Sept, 18:34 UTC | 16% |
| 21 Sept, 17:43 UTC | 16% |
| 21 Sept, 17:15 UTC | 16% |
| 21 Sept, 16:23 UTC | 16% |
| 21 Sept, 14:55 UTC | 16% |
| 21 Sept, 14:07 UTC | 17% |
| 21 Sept, 13:46 UTC | 17% |
| 21 Sept, 13:24 UTC | 17% |
| 21 Sept, 12:43 UTC | 17% |
| 21 Sept, 04:00 UTC | 18% |
| 20 Sept, 15:07 UTC | 18% |
| 20 Sept, 09:15 UTC | 19% |
| 19 Sept, 16:18 UTC | 19% |
| 19 Sept, 14:13 UTC | 19% |
| 19 Sept, 12:21 UTC | 19% |
| 19 Sept, 08:09 UTC | 20% |
| 18 Sept, 05:25 UTC | 19% |
| 18 Sept, 04:13 UTC | 19% |
| 18 Sept, 03:59 UTC | 19% |
| 18 Sept, 03:13 UTC | 19% |
| 18 Sept, 01:36 UTC | 19% |
| 18 Sept, 01:23 UTC | 19% |
| 18 Sept, 00:57 UTC | 19% |
| 17 Sept, 21:18 UTC | 19% |
| 17 Sept, 19:37 UTC | 19% |
| 17 Sept, 19:02 UTC | 19% |
| 17 Sept, 15:32 UTC | 19% |
| 17 Sept, 14:31 UTC | 19% |
| 17 Sept, 14:16 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Sept, 13:56 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Sept, 13:29 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Sept, 12:55 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Sept, 12:08 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Sept, 11:23 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Sept, 09:02 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Sept, 08:56 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Sept, 08:05 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Sept, 07:53 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Sept, 06:49 UTC | 19% |
| 17 Sept, 05:58 UTC | 19% |
| 17 Sept, 05:19 UTC | 19% |
| 17 Sept, 04:55 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Sept, 04:18 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Sept, 03:46 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Sept, 03:24 UTC | 16% |
| 17 Sept, 02:16 UTC | 16% |
| 17 Sept, 01:42 UTC | 16% |
| 16 Sept, 23:56 UTC | 18% |
| 16 Sept, 23:23 UTC | 18% |
| 16 Sept, 22:51 UTC | 19% |
| 16 Sept, 21:19 UTC | 19% |
| 16 Sept, 20:57 UTC | 19% |
| 16 Sept, 20:24 UTC | 19% |
| 16 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 19% |
| 16 Sept, 19:13 UTC | 19% |
| 16 Sept, 18:58 UTC | 19% |
| 16 Sept, 18:25 UTC | 19% |
| 16 Sept, 17:48 UTC | 19% |
| 16 Sept, 17:08 UTC | 19% |
| 15 Sept, 21:47 UTC | 24% |
| 15 Sept, 21:00 UTC | 24% |
| 15 Sept, 20:33 UTC | 24% |
| 15 Sept, 19:08 UTC | 24% |
| 15 Sept, 18:59 UTC | 24% |
| 15 Sept, 17:19 UTC | 24% |
| 15 Sept, 16:34 UTC | 23% |
| 15 Sept, 14:34 UTC | 24% |
| 15 Sept, 14:17 UTC | 24% |
| 15 Sept, 13:18 UTC | 24% |
| 15 Sept, 12:53 UTC | 24% |
| 15 Sept, 09:35 UTC | 24% |
| 15 Sept, 09:27 UTC | 24% |
| 15 Sept, 08:08 UTC | 24% |
| 15 Sept, 07:59 UTC | 24% |
| 15 Sept, 07:29 UTC | 24% |
| 15 Sept, 06:54 UTC | 24% |
| 15 Sept, 06:22 UTC | 24% |
| 15 Sept, 05:23 UTC | 24% |
| 15 Sept, 04:58 UTC | 24% |
| 15 Sept, 04:22 UTC | 24% |
| 15 Sept, 03:59 UTC | 24% |
| 15 Sept, 01:47 UTC | 24% |
| 15 Sept, 00:05 UTC | 23% |
| 14 Sept, 23:36 UTC | 23% |
| 14 Sept, 23:28 UTC | 23% |
| 14 Sept, 21:58 UTC | 23% |
| 14 Sept, 21:23 UTC | 23% |
| 14 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 23% |
| 14 Sept, 17:20 UTC | 23% |
| 14 Sept, 16:18 UTC | 23% |
| 14 Sept, 15:34 UTC | 23% |
| 14 Sept, 15:25 UTC | 23% |
| 14 Sept, 14:41 UTC | 23% |
| 14 Sept, 14:25 UTC | 23% |
| 14 Sept, 13:58 UTC | 23% |
| 14 Sept, 09:18 UTC | 22% |
| 14 Sept, 08:54 UTC | 22% |
| 14 Sept, 08:21 UTC | 22% |
| 14 Sept, 07:58 UTC | 22% |
| 14 Sept, 07:25 UTC | 21% |
| 14 Sept, 06:28 UTC | 21% |
| 14 Sept, 02:04 UTC | 21% |
| 14 Sept, 01:56 UTC | 21% |
| 13 Sept, 17:10 UTC | 21% |
| 13 Sept, 09:13 UTC | 21% |
| 13 Sept, 08:39 UTC | 21% |
| 13 Sept, 07:17 UTC | 21% |
| 13 Sept, 06:53 UTC | 21% |
| 13 Sept, 05:48 UTC | 20% |
| 13 Sept, 05:15 UTC | 19% |
| 13 Sept, 04:49 UTC | 18% |
| 13 Sept, 01:29 UTC | 18% |
| 13 Sept, 00:54 UTC | 18% |
| 13 Sept, 00:20 UTC | 18% |
| 12 Sept, 22:26 UTC | 18% |
| 12 Sept, 21:30 UTC | 18% |
| 12 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 18% |
| 11 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 18% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 9 Sept 2026. Bloomberg.com published first, on 9 September at 21:04 UTC.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? — the market puts it at 16%, with $4k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. Apple must hold the highest global market capitalization at the exact moment the stock market closes on December 31, 2026. The outcome depends on the final closing prices of all major companies on that specific date. Readers often mistake intraday highs or news reports for the official resolution data.
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? — resolved “No” on 30 Sept 2026. Apple must hold the highest global market capitalization at the end of trading on September 30, 2026, to trigger the Yes outcome. Any other company holding that top spot results in a No outcome. Readers often mistake the date for the event day rather than the specific market close deadline.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Polymarket Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? 16% +1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? No 24d ago
The market favoured No at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
Have your say
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls