Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?
The market favoured No at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$32k
Total volume$520k
Liquidity$23k
Resolved1 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 22:21 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 17:36 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 17:28 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 0% |
| 28 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 0% |
| 27 Sept, 09:02 UTC | 0% |
| 27 Sept, 00:34 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 15:56 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 15:15 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 11:10 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 10:05 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 08:38 UTC | 0% |
| 25 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 0% |
| 25 Sept, 09:17 UTC | 0% |
| 25 Sept, 08:52 UTC | 0% |
| 25 Sept, 07:07 UTC | 0% |
| 25 Sept, 06:54 UTC | 0% |
| 25 Sept, 06:03 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Sept, 05:56 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Sept, 00:34 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 22:45 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 18:24 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 16:40 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 16:18 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 15:45 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 15:11 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 14:44 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 14:28 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 10:12 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 09:00 UTC | 1% |
What counts
Apple must hold the highest global market capitalization at the end of trading on September 30, 2026, to trigger the Yes outcome. Any other company holding that top spot results in a No outcome. Readers often mistake the date for the event day rather than the specific market close deadline.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →